Lafayette Weather – More Rain

Fans of the TV show Family Guy will probably know Ollie Williams the Weatherman and his catch phrase, "It's Gon' Rain". Ollie could take over for Dave Baker this week as the phrase, it's gonna rain, is basically the forecast for the next four days.

The bigger question might be how much is it going to rain and why is it raining so much? Most reporting stations across Acadiana have had rainfall totals of four to six inches since last Friday. The forecast calls for an additional one to five inches possible today. That scenario repeats itself for the next four days. Many forecast models do show a break in the rain making by the end of the week however some of the more trusted models show showers holding on at least until Sunday.

The catalyst for our rainfall is actually located in the southwestern United States. A low pressure system centered there is creating a dip in the sub-tropical jet stream. This river of fast moving air high about the surface of the  Earth is grabbing moisture from the Pacific and Gulf Mexico and dropping it right over the Gulf South. What is really creating the significant rainfall is the series of upper level disturbances that form along this current of air. These systems create lift and instability in the atmosphere and when that happens you and I need an umbrella.

A flood watch for much of South Louisiana that was issued yesterday was cancelled after the heavy rains moved off to the east. Still a flood warning remains in effect for the Vermilion River at Lafayette as that body of water is already slightly above flood stage. However, the real problems don't start to happen until the the Vermilion reaches 13ft. Currently the river stage is 10.2 at the last report.