New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons — Gus Kattengell’s Preview

New Orleans Saints – Atlanta Falcons. It’s as close to a college rivalry atmosphere as you can get in the NFL. “Falcons Hate Week” as it’s known around these parts as pictures of Sean Payton’s record against Atlanta or of Atlanta head coach Mike Smith’s face photoshoped on a baby in a diaper are among the few pictures circulating on social media this week.

It’s a rivalry because the games have meant a good deal the last couple of years. Sean Payton’s tenure with the team has led to a 48-16 mark and four straight post-season appearances while he’s been on the sideline. Mike Smith led the Falcons to a 36-12 record with three straight post-season appearances before last year’s 4-12 season.

KEYS TO THE GAME

At the top of my list has to be the Atlanta offensive line vs the Saints defensive line. Injuries led to a weak group last season and this preseason the Falcons lost their starting left tackle to a season-ending knee injury. Rookies Jake Matthews was selected with the sixth overall pick in the NFL Draft. He’ll get the start Sunday at left tackle. Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan tweeted “lunch” at the time he was drafted and he and outside linebacker Junior Galette will look to take advantage of Matthews first ever NFL game. The duo combined for 24 ½ sacks last season. Defensive tackle Akiem Hicks could also make an impact as he has had a solid training camp and looks to take that next step to a premiers defensive lineman this season. Hicks in 2013 had 4 ½ sacks and 56 tackles. Also Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will undoubtedly look to test the Falcons offensive line with multiple defensive front and bringing the heat via blitzes that at time may come from on of the three safeties that will see action in Kenny Vaccaro, Raphael Bush and Jairus Byrd.

MATT RYAN VS SAINTS SECOND CORNERS

Saints CB Keenan Lewis is the team’s shutdown corner and has drawn the assignment to cover Atlanta’s Julio Jones their top offensive weapon. Jones will win some but Lewis is good. The same maybe can’t be said for the other side of the field. Sure Patrick Robinson beat out Champ Bailey for the starting opposite spot at corner back but Bailey was hurt pretty much all of training camp and let’s remember last season going into training camp we were wondering if Robinson would make the team. Corner Corey White is still giving Saints fans nightmares from last time these two teams played in the Georgia Dome. White is an inside player, not outside, he’ll be the nickel but the fact Atlanta QB Matt Ryan will test anyone other than Lewis most of the time. Keeping plays in front of them will be key for all Saints CBs especially those not named Keenan Lewis.

BRANDIN COOKS

The rookie WR is the real deal. A home run hitter that can score any time he touches the ball. Saints head coach Sean Payton will try ever conceivable way to get the ball into his hands. Handoffs, short passes, quick passes, screens, deep balls, crossing routes, the works. If Brandin Cooks has any kinds of success it will open up the field for TE Jimmy Graham who has had good games against the Falcons defense. Cooks will also no doubt be used a decoy and an aid to QB Drew Brees in helping him read the Falcons defense just like RB Reggie Bush did in his first two years with the Saints.

SAINTS RUN GAME

We have heard and seen how the team plans on revamping the run game. Don’t expect 30 carries collectively but the team has set a goal of 5-yards a carry. RB Mark Ingram had a fantastic preseason and it’s a contract year for the back. He and RB Khiry Robinson will be the Saints 1-2 punch in the run game. RB Pierre Thomas will still be involved with carries and pass catches. He’s still the team’s best pass protector so if it gets into a shootout he’ll be back there. What we’ve seen different this season as opposed to previous one is that Payton is using all of the backs the same. They’ve all caught screens, run the same run plays and have been used in pass protection. This makes it harder for defenses to predict what’s coming and more importantly it appears the backs have become more productive.

KEEPING COOL

Saints safety Kenny Vaccaro did a lot more than get flagged 15-yards for a late hit on QB Matt Ryan last season in the first game of the year. The play has set off a whole change of identity for the Falcons after owner Arthur Blank called out his team for not coming to Ryan’s aid after the play and not starting something with Vaccaro. The word “tough” was used 25 times by one reporter’s count in the first episode of Hard Knocks on HBO. Mike Smith in the second episode told his team in a team meeting that sometimes a 15-yard penalty is okay if it comes in defending a teammate. I hope this happens. Give the Saints 15-yards a pop in trying to prove you’re “tough” and won’t “be punked” as offensive line coach Mike Tice was quoted as saying this week. Atlanta will be chippy. The Saints must keep their cool. That 20-plus penalty game in preseason should help serve as a reminder as to how Payton felt when his team was penalized a ton.

MY TAKE

Make no mistake there are 15 more games to play after Sunday’s game. That said, Atlanta sports talk radio, the Falcons players and reporters are acting like this is the Super Bowl. They felt last year’s regular season opening loss in New Orleans set the tone for the WHOLE SEASON! Okay then. The Saints must survive the first quarter and avoid the dreaded road-early-turnover that seemed to happen every road game last season.

New Orleans has weapons and despite only playing three entire series in the preseason, Brees has looked locked-in all off season and camp. Cooks is good for a touchdown, just wait until “Ludacris Speed” is unleashed in Atlanta. Graham is good for a TD and I feel the Saints running backs will produce one. So I feel the Saints stepping on the field can put up 21 points. Atlanta has Julio Jones, and that’s about it. The Saints stopped the Falcons run game with Stephen Jackson last year and Devonte Freeman a rookie may add a wrinkle but Atlanta’s game is the passing game. Keep the ball in front of you and tackle and you’ll win.

Third downs will be key because Ryan will dink and dunk the ball to make sure it’s out of his hands quickly trying to eliminate the Saints pass rush. If the Saints can get up big early the Falcons can’t win that game.

I see it 34-17 Saints to open up a year I see the Saints finishing at 13-3.