NOAA Releases Mid-Season Hurricane Forecast
It was just a few days ago that forecasters at Colorado State issued their mid-season outlook for the 2016 Hurricane Season. Now the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is releasing their updated out look on the tropics. These refinements in the early season forecast come just as the Atlantic Basin is heading into the typical peak of the tropical season.
NOAA is holding steadfast to their initial forecast which called for a stronger and more active season than the tropical Atlantic has experienced since 2012. This season has already seen five named storms and the NOAA outlook says that's about halfway to the short side of their forecast.
We’re expecting 12 to 17 named storms now of which 5 to 8 are expected to become hurricanes and 2 to 4 of those are expected to become major hurricanes.
Dr. Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster with NOAA, made those comments in a story published by the Louisiana Radio Network.
Dr. Bell said the early season forecast for 2016 had suggested 10 - 16 named storms with four to eight of those storms reaching hurricane strength. The mid-season forecast adjust those numbers upward to 12-17 named storms and five to eight hurricanes. Dr. Bell says the updated outlook predicts that one to four of those storms will reach major hurricane status.
Why do forecasters believe this will be a very active season?
These factors include weaker wind shear, stronger West African monsoon and overall more favorable conditions across the Atlantic to all more storms and strong storms to develop.
Currently the Tropical Atlantic is quiet with no areas of tropical formation expected within the next 48 hours.