Tropical Update – Are We Done For The Season?
As Superstorm Sandy taught us last year you never say never when it comes to tropical weather. The good news is that Louisiana and Gulf Coast states are now on the steep decline as far as tropical weather probability. There is another mini peak to the seasonthat generally occurs around this time in October but current forecast models don't suggest anything firing up in the next 5 days.
History tells us that late October and into November are very quiet times for Tropical Atlantic. Certainly there have been storms and very powerful storms to form during this time frame but climatology suggests that target zone for landfall of such a system is no where near the northern Gulf Coast. We have seen tropical storms form near our coastline during this time of year but no hurricanes have made landfall in Louisiana in November ever.
Did we dodge a bullet in this years hurricane season? We certainly got lucky that storms that formed in the Gulf generally were swept off to the west into Mexico or they encountered hostile conditions and fell apart before they could strengthen. If that's dodging a bullet then I guess we should take it.