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Tropical Update – Chantal’s Track Shifted Slightly West


Predicting a path of a tropical weather system is about the same as dropping a leaf on one side of a pond and predicting where it will make landfall on the other side of the pond. Basically it is very difficult to do with a great amount of accuracy.

Tropical Storm Chantal continues to churn through the eastern Caribbean Sea and if the current forecast holds the Florida peninsula will feel the effects of the storm by Saturday. The problem with Chantal is that the storm has not been following the predicted path.

The current forecast scenario from the National Hurricane Center is still predicting a Florida landfall or at least brush by on the Atlantic side of the state. However the latest computer model runs have made a decided shift to the west. In fact many of the models that were in agreement yesterday are not so agreeable this morning.

Where will Chantal go? That will be dependent on several features in the atmosphere including an upper level low pressure system just off the east coast of Florida and the winds aloft which could actually tear Chantal apart.

The best suggestion we can make for anyone with an interest along Louisiana’s coastline, keep up to speed on the latest updates, make sure you have your plan in place and be ready to act if necessary. Right now the chances of you needing to put your plan into action are small but better safe than sorry.

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