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Tropical Update – Ingrid On Shore, Humberto Is Back And Could There Be New Trouble In The Gulf By This Weekend?

Tropics Sept 17
National Hurricane Center

The lack of hurricanes in the 2013 season has been well documented but we all know it only takes one to make a quiet season a rough season. We have seen two hurricanes form and now dissipate in the Atlantic Basin this season. Could there be another player forming the Southwest Gulf of Mexico by this weekend?

Hurricane Ingrid is now raining itself out over the mountains of Mexico. The forecast was right on target for Ingrid and flooding rains will be the biggest problem with this storm system.

Tropical Storm Humberto reformed over the open Atlantic Ocean yesterday. It is still forecast to not be an issue for any land mass in its current tropical state.

Just to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula in the Western Caribbean lies our next concern. This area of disturbed weather is on a similar track has Ingrid but there may be a different outcome. The Hurricane Center is currently giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next two days. That probability is increased to 40% in the five day outlook.

Current tropical forecast suggest this system will cross the Yucatan and become almost stationary in the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. There the system could sit and spin and get its act together. We have seen many storms over the years grow quickly out of this area of the Gulf. While right now there is no reason for real concern there is a reason to check out the latest information on the tropics every day, especially this weekend.

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