Tropical Update – Two Areas Of Concern In The Gulf of Mexico
The phone message I got was half joking but it held a lot of truth too, " You better not let that thing in the Gulf mess up my Ragin Cajun Tailgate Weekend at the beach". If I only had that kind of power they wouldn't call me Bruce Mikells, they'd call me Dave Baker.
Yes our Ragin Cajun Tailgate Getaway Weekend on the Alabama Gulf Coast is next weekend , you can still book yours at a stupid low price,and yes there are not one but two areas of disturbed weather in the Gulf.
However, I don't think either system will affect our weekend at the beach or the northern Gulf of Mexico. Okay there might be some midweek showers but the tropical models are in good agreement that both of these systems will stay well south of our area and move into Mexico or South Texas.
The first system that most of us have been watching for the past few days has crossed over the Florida Peninsula and is now in the southeast Gulf. It is expected to move in a westward direction over the next five days. The conditions for strengthening are not that good, the Hurricane Center only gives it a 30% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. By then it should be on the coast in Texas, if the forecast and timing hold true.
The other system is an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche. It is expected to move into Mexico over the next couple of days. The Hurricane Center suggest that it has a minimal chance of getting stronger before landfall. Since it is basically on the Mexican coast already it will just be a rainmaker for that part of the world.
Meanwhile Tropical Storm Edouard is out in the Atlantic, it still poses no threat to any major land mass. Another tropical wave has rolled off the African coast and it is expected to track westward over the next few days. The Hurricane Center gives this system a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.