Tropical Update – Two Systems Being Monitored In Atlantic Basin
We are essentially at the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. History tells us that September 10th is the unofficial high point for tropical activity during hurricane season. Mother Nature is never one to mess with math and the law of averages so right now she has two systems in the Atlantic that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring.
Right now both systems are closer to Africa than they are to the coast of the United States. The reason they are being monitored so closely is that this is time of year, The Cape Verde Season, when storms form in that area and travel west toward us. The large expanse of open warm water gives these Cape Verde systems plenty of time and energy to get big and become very dangerous.
The first system has been labeled Invest 90L by the Hurricane Center and it's future is not too bright. Forecasters are only giving this system a 10% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. The forecast models for Invest 90L are all over the map since the system itself is not really defined. That weakness makes it hard for the models to incorporate it in to the formulas they use.
The second system that has been designated as Invest 91L by the Hurricane Center is just off the coast of Africa. It is lower in latitude than Invest 90L and appears to have a better chance of getting stronger. The Hurricane Center has the probability of this system strengthening into a tropical cyclone at 60% over the next 5 days. The forecast models have a slightly better handle on this system since it is a little better organized.
Regardless both of these entities are many days if not a week and some change away from affecting any major land mass. This means there is plenty of time to watch and refine the forecasts if necessary.