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Watching The Tropics – Storm System Given 0% Chance Of Development

Water Vapor Satellite
NOAA.gov

For much of this past week an area of showers and thunderstorms situated over the southwest corner of the Gulf of Mexico has had the attention of the National Hurricane Center. Their vigilance was based on current satellites and the history of tropical development in the month of June.

History has shown that the Bay of Campeche is a hot spot for tropical development during the first month of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. That is why a persistent area of thunderstorms and upper level low pressure system was being scrutinized over the past week.

Just yesterday forecasters suggested that the system had at least a 50% chance of some further development but the forecast has changed dramatically over the past 24 hours. The low pressure system that was providing the spin and lift for the developing system  has moved on shore in Mexico. This effectively cuts the system off from its supply of energy from the warm Gulf waters.

What that means is forecasters believe the first minor threat of the young hurricane season is going to fade away. It won’t be forgotten though, many residents of coastal Mexico have endured days of torrential rainfall with flash flooding and mudslides. Hopefully this system will rain itself out or move out that inundated area soon.

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