How Big Point Spreads Affect LSU Versus McNeese Saturday

(KMDL-FM) On Saturday night in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, the faithful will gather to see the LSU Tigers play football. Their opponent on Saturday will be the McNeese Cowboys. Oddsmakers have made LSU a prohibitive favorite to win the game on the scoreboard. But which team actually gives you the best chance of cashing in at a local or online sportsbook?

At the time of this article's publication, the point spread for the LSU vs. McNeese football game had LSU listed as a 53.5-point favorite to defeat the Pokes. I feel fairly certain that LSU should be able to generate the larger number on the scoreboard than McNeese will, but on the totesheets, can they generate enough offense to cover a more-than-seven-touchdown margin?

History Says LSU Will Win the Game - History Is Not So Sure About Covering the Points

a group of people sitting at a bar watching tv — Photo by Amit Lahav on Unsplash

This is where history can be our friend or confuse the ever-living hell out of us. I am hoping it will be friendly for our purposes. So, let's look at large favorites and how well they cover large spreads.

Why Do They Have Point Spreads in the First Place?

Incidentally, the reason oddsmakers offer point spreads is to even out the betting on both sides of the equation. Bookmakers don't make money by you losing; they make money by booking your bets and collecting those service and convenience fees, and the more bets they book, the more money they make.

Sportsbooks don't like an uneven balance sheet when it comes to betting preferences, so to get you to bet on McNeese, they are willing to give you a 53.5-point advantage before kickoff. And if you took that bet at that point spread, there is a 36.4% chance that if you had money on the Tigers you'd win. That means there is a 63.6% chance that you'd be a loser in the eyes of the sportsbooks.

What's the #1 Reason Good Teams Don't Cover Large Point Spreads?

The problem with a large point spread and covering comes down to what is known as the backdoor cover. This is where a favorite builds a huge lead, pulls their starters, and allows the second and third string to get in some work.

It is usually during this time in the game that the underdog can manifest some points on offense or make a play on defense that will keep the favorite from covering the points. The propensity for wagers to get whitewashed by a backdoor cover really comes into play in point spreads that are 28 points or higher.

But even as a 28-point favorite or even a 21-point favorite, the average cover percentage for a favorite is right at 50% when perusing point spreads as a whole. So, who should you bet on tonight at Tiger Stadium?

I would go with Mother Nature. I think she will have the biggest effect on the game. And if I were putting my lunch money on the game, I would go with McNeese and the points.

I don't think LSU will keep the starters in long because of the injury risk and the inclement weather. The Tigers do have to travel to Kentucky next week and the Wildcats are #24 in the nation. But I do think LSU will win by a large margin since they are attempting to appeal to national voters in the College Football Playoffs. But I don't think they'll risk losing key starters just to show the world they are better at football than McNeese.

And if you're going out for food after the game, may we suggest these places for you?

Lafayette Late Night Eats - 10 Perfect Spots for the "After Party"

Lafayette and South Louisiana have a rather vibrant nightlife scene. We're always hosting festivals, concerts, fundraisers, dances, and parties. That means when those events are done, we need a place to go grab a snack, a meal, a sandwich, or just something to soak up some of the "party beverages". We think we've found 10 great places that don't mind you coming in at midnight or later. Here are Lafayette's 10 Best Spots for Late Night Eats.

Gallery Credit: Bruce Mikells