‘Enhanced’ Severe Threat Looming for Louisiana Through Wednesday

Residents from Shreveport, Louisiana southward along the Toledo Bend Reservoir and then eastward across to Natchitoches and Alexandria you will want to be especially weather-aware today and tonight.

For those who live in Lafayette, New Iberia, and Baton Rouge, your time to be weather-aware will most likely come during the day on Wednesday. But the bottom line is this, if you live in Louisiana for the next 24 to 48 hours you'll be living with a significant threat of severe weather.

The Storm Prediction Center has been forecasting a severe storm outbreak in the Gulf South for more than a week. It looks as if that prognostication is coming to fruition with much of northern Louisiana experiencing rain and thunderstorms in the overnight hours. Some of those storms prompted severe weather watches and warnings. It does appear that more watches and or warnings could be required for other parts of the state today.

The above graphic from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles shows in greater detail the Storm Prediction Center outlook for southwest Louisiana. As you can see, the city of Lake Charles is on the edge between "Enhanced" and "Slight" as far as thunderstorm risks go. To help you understand the difference, here's how the SPC defines those terms.

The biggest threats from today's potential severe weather will come in the form of high winds and heavy rains. The storms will produce frequent lightning and may produce hail too. There is also a potential risk of tornadoes.

Things don't improve that much on Wednesday. It will be worse for much of the I-10/I-12 corridor. While a large portion of southwestern Louisiana will remain at an enhanced risk of severe storms the area along and north of I-10 from the Lafayette area eastward through Baton Rouge and New Orleans will be at an even higher threat level for severe weather.

The SPC has placed that part of the state at a "Moderate" risk of severe storms. This means there is a strong likelihood of long-lived, widespread, and intense storms. Computer models suggest that the strongest storms will move through the Lafayette area during the morning hours on Wednesday. If that forecast timing holds then the worst of the weather will move out of the area by mid-afternoon on Wednesday.

The remainder of the work week should be rather quiet with mostly sunny skies forecast for the area on Thursday. Pleasant conditions should remain across South Louisiana through the weekend.