Saints vs 49ers – Gus Kattengell’s Preview
Saints can show if they’ve grown as a team on Sunday
One foot. Funny how one foot can shape how we feel and judge something.
New Orleans enters the game 3-4 following a frustrating and heart stopping 25-20 win over Seattle at home last week. Seattle WR Jermaine Kearse was unable to keep both feet in bounds on a fade as time expired. Feet in and we’re talking about a 2-5 team still looking to find ways to win a game. The feet landed out of bounds however and now the fan base is excited and feels the black and gold could be making a run here.
San Francisco is coming off of a bye at 1-6 on the season and has struggled so far on both sides of the football.
The Saints and 49ers series goes back to the old NFC West days where the 49ers hold a 47-25-2 edge. New Orleans has however won seven of the last nine regular season meetings. 2014 was the last time these teams met and the Saints won 27-24 in overtime.
New Orleans as of Friday is a 4.5-point favorite.
STORYLINES
The storyline this week is about how the Saints handle success and finally expectations of winning.
New Orleans has won three of their past four games and in the lone loss during that stretch at Kansas City, one can argue they stopped themselves from winning. 10 penalties to go with a pick-six help combine for a six-point loss on the road in a game they could have won with fewer mistakes.
Granted you can say that about any loss but there is no doubt the defense has played better in recent weeks. With the additions of a starting defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and cornerback Delvin Breaux the defense gets better instantly.
Everything about Sunday’s matchup screams a win off the bus for the Saints. There’s the challenge. The 49ers have nothing to lose and have had extra time to prepare so they will come out with energy. For the Saints it’s about taking care of business and proving that simply getting to 500 is a starting point for this team to make a push towards a post season spot.
San Francisco is a bad football team. Struggling on both sides of the ball the key will be to not give them hope or belief that things will change coming out of the bye week for them. Turnovers and penalties can quickly turn a game that should be a win by the Saints into a tighter game and at worse into a loss that could scuttle the season.
THE ENEMY
San Francisco is coming off of a bye with a record of 1-6 with that win coming all the way back during the opening week of the season. The 49ers offense is last in the NFL and have switched from Blaine Gabbert to Colin Kaepernick at quarterback.
RB Carlos Hyde should be back after missing some time with an injured shoulder and his six touchdowns this season in hopes of helping get some points. The Saints have given up 12 rushing touchdowns this season.
San Francisco has the league’s worst rush defense and this week defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil says his team address the issue. O’Neil feels they must improve their pad level and be lower, the lack of low pad level is leading to poor leverage and therefor and inability to get off of blocks and make the tackle.
BY THE NUMBERS
The Saints offense comes into the game ranked 2nd overall in total offense averaging 415.0 yards a game. New Orleans is 1st in passing averaging 326.9 yards per game and 24th in rushing up four spots from a week ago at 88.1 yards per game. San Francisco is the 32nd ranked offense with 290.0 yards per game. The 49ers are 32nd in passing with 161.4 yards a game and 4th in rushing with 128.6 yards on the ground.
Defensively the Saints are 28th up from 29th of a week ago in total defense giving up 397.4 yards a game, 29th in pass defense giving up 286.7 and up five spots to 18th in yards allowed on the ground at 110.7. San Francisco is 30th in yards allowed giving up 407.6 yards per game. The 49ers are 7th in passing defense giving up 222.4 and 32nd in rush defense allowing 185.1 good for last in the NFL.
ESPN’s Week 9 power rankings have the Saints moving up 6 spots from 25 a week ago to 19 this week. ESPN cites the team winning three of their last four games.
The Saints have been penalized 45 times for 439 yards. Seattle has been flagged 44 times for 424 yards.
HOW THE SOUTH IS WON
Atlanta 6-3 vs Tampa Bay 4-3
Tampa Bay 3-4 @ Atlanta 5-2 Even
New Orleans 3-4 @ San Francisco 1-6 +4.5
Carolina 2-5 @ Los Angeles 3-4 +3.0
PLAYER(S) THAT NEEDS TO HAVE A GOOD GAME ON OFFENSE
RB Tim Hightower and or Mark Ingram. San Francisco has the league’s 7th best pass defense and worst rush defense in the league. Seems like the Saints would be prudent to try and run the football on Sunday. Saints RB Tim Hightower is coming off of a 102 yard performance as he came in for RM Mark Ingram following a costly fumble. Ingram believes he will still be apart of game plans but understands Hightower’s play earns him carries. Whoever it is, if the Saints can establish the run then the play action big pass play will be there and the game could get ugly quickly.
PLAYER(S) THAT NEEDS TO HAVE A GOOD GAME ON DEFENSE
Saints D-Line. The 49ers are having tons of trouble passing the ball. Teams in recent games say that Kaepernick is scared to throw the football and struggles with his reads. If the Saints defensive line can shut down the 49ers run game there is no way they pass their way to a win.
X FACTORS
TE Colby Fleener. Fleener had four catches for 36 yards on just four targets last week. I’m feeling teams are no longer sleeping on WR Michael Thomas so he will get attention. WR Brandin Cooks will have eyes on him due to his vertical threat. Maybe the middle of the field could be a place that QB Drew Brees can exploit.
CB Delvin Breaux. The local product hasn’t played since Week 1 after suffering a broken fibula. Breaux is the team’s shut down corner and you know he is eager to try and make some plays. Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen simply by having Breaux on the field can now use some wrinkles with pressures or coverages that he couldn’t do before.
DT Sheldon Rankins. The Saints top draft pick of the 2016 NFL draft is finally ready to make his NFL debut. Rankins suffered a broken fibula before the season started and his loss was a big blow. He is seen as someone that can help stop the run, provide pressure up the middles and add overall strength to the defensive line. His return could be big.
HOW I SEE IT
The Saints are improving. Defensively they are stronger now that Rankins and Breaux are back in the lineup. In consecutive weeks the defense has done a good job of keeping the opposing offense from turning the scoreboard into a pinball machine. Kansas City had 19 points, and Seattle 13 points. However turnovers added seven points to each of those opponents’ finals scores. Point is they are improving.
For the Saints offense it’s about being consistent on the road. They’ve scored on the opening possession now in four straight games and if they get off to a fast start on Sunday it’s over. The 49ers offense can not win in an offensive shoot out.
I see it as a win as Brees has a nice day and the run game compliments a two-touchdown afternoon for number 9.
Saints win 34-17.
(Catch your New Orleans Saints on 97.3 The Dawg today starting with the pre game at 1:00pm and the kick-off at 3:05pm)
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