Tropical Depression In Atlantic Should Pose No Threat To Louisiana Or Gulf Coast
One forecaster I know described forecasting the tracks of hurricanes like this, ” It’s like taking a leaf, dropping it into a lake and guessing where it will come ashore”. That’s the nature of being a tropical weather guesser. There is a tropical system in the Atlantic basin and forecasters are watching the movements of Tropical Depression #2.
The system is still well out to sea and even further away from the United States but it is in an area where we see tropical formation, especially this time of year. The current statistics on T.D. #2 are not that impressive. The system is showing a very small area of circulation. The convective thunderstorms around that area of circulation are very disorganized too. A NOAA buoy near the storms center suggests maximum sustained winds at 30kts. That is well below the tropical storm threshold.
The outlook for strengthening for T.D. #2 is not good. The system will move into a strong area of vertical wind shear which should disorganize the system further. It will also move into an area of drier air. This air will also inhibit any strengthening over the next 48 hours. In fact most of the reliable tropical models do not keep the system as a tropical depression for more than 48 hours.
The current forecast track before the system dissipates should take the center of the circulation near the Lesser Antilles as an area of rain producing thunderstorms. That is certainly nothing to create any panic or cause for imminent danger in those islands. Elsewhere the tropical Atlantic remains quiet.