Tropical Update – October Storms, Why The Season Isn’t Over Yet
There is one more peak to the typical tropical season in the Atlantic Basin and we are just about to go through it. The actual peak of the season is September 10, but there is a mini peak that occurs in early and mid-October. South Louisiana is no stranger to October storms. Some of the more notable October storms to affect the state include Hilda in 1964, Juan in 1985 and Lili in 2002.
While it is very possible for hurricanes and tropical storms to strike our coastline in October, it becomes less likely as the month wears on. Changes in weather patterns and cooler sea surface temperatures make it difficult for these monster storms to capture the energy they need to form.
The Atlantic basin is now hosting two potential trouble spots. Tropical Depression 11 is in the mid Atlantic and is expected to stay there. The forecast models show no indication of the storm moving toward any major landmass before dissipating.
There is an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean that could be a wild card. Several of the long range forecast models have been picking up this system for days now. I don't believe the system will be any threat to the Gulf Coast but it could cause problems for Florida or the Eastern Seaboard should conditions stay favorable.