Tropics Uncharacteristically Quiet For This Time Of Year
At the beginning of the hurricane season the focus always seems to be on the number of predicted storms. Those of us that live along the coast know it only takes one to create a life changing event. That’s why many long time residents of South Louisiana are casting a cautious eye on the Tropical Atlantic and the strange calm that is the current state.
The peak of the Tropical Atlantic hurricane season is basically now. If you want a specific date it would be September 10th, but anytime from late August to early October is when the tropics are historically the most active.
Currently the National Hurricane Center is watching two areas of disturbed weather. One in the middle of the Atlantic is given almost a zero percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. The other area is just off the west coast of Africa. The Hurricane Center gives this mass of convection a 40% chance of becoming a tropical entity. The good news is that this system is forecast to stay in the open water even if it does develop.
While the quiet and relative calm is good news we are far from being out of the woods for this hurricane season. Hurricane Lili was an October storm that wreaked all kinds of havoc on Acadiana and late September of 8 years ago we were all dodging debris and flood water generated by Hurricane Rita.
Not to sound an unwarranted alarm but some of the longer range forecast models are indicating a low latitude tropical system that could be a part of our plans by the middle of September. Fortunately the accuracy of such long range forecasting is not nearly reliable enough for your anxiety level to rise at this time.