Cold Front May Shield Gulf South From Tropical Threat

(KMDL-FM) Forecasters with the National Weather Service and your local meteorologists will soon be discussing the "first taste of fall" in Louisiana.

red maple leaves — Photo by Justin Cron on Unsplash

By the first taste of fall, we mean daytime highs of 80 degrees or less and nighttime temperatures near 60 degrees. And that should happen long before the end of September.

Cold Front Could Shield Louisiana From Potential Tropical Threat

What could make this return to tolerable temperatures even more pleasant is that the cold front expected to bring these cooler temperatures to the Gulf South states will also serve as a barricade against a potential tropical threat. Yeah, many of the tropical forecast models are suggesting a "tropical low" in the northern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf about the time this frontal system sweeps through our region.

Incidentally, speaking of the tropics, we did break a "record" on September 11th. That date has been the latest date that the first hurricane of an Atlantic Tropical Season has formed. We have not had any hurricanes in 2026, so the new "latest first date" will have to be re-established. It is possible we could skate through the season with no hurricanes, but that has not happened in the "satellite era" of weather forecasting.

The Global Forecast System, or GFS model, is a computer-based weather prediction model run four times a day by the National Centers for Environmental Information and NOAA. It's not the only forecast model that is used in creating our weather outlooks, but it plays a part.

That forecast model predicts weather conditions 16 days out. That model has been rather consistent in showing not only the "gumbo weather" cold front's arrival in the Gulf South but also that potential tropical entity. You can see an animation/visualzation of the most recent GFS Model Run here.

Here is the disclaimer: Model projections are not official forecasts. They are to be used for planning purposes only. Decisions about protecting lives and property should only be made using official forecast information. As we have mentioned, accuracy over time decreases the further out a model projection runs,

a man with a beard and a black shirt — Photo by Coleman Glover on Unsplash

There is no doubt that cooler weather is coming to Louisiana. The days are getting shorter in Canada and the northern United States. It's happening here too, but up north is where the changes begin.

That longer nighttime means a longer cooling period for the atmosphere. The shorter the days become up north, the cooler the nights become, and that colder, to be more accurate, cooler, air is beginning to migrate to the south.

Here Is The Date We Expect Gumbo Weather Will Arrive In Louisiana

Our unofficial prediction of when multiple gumbo pots will be fired up across South Louisiana is September 24th. And no, this won't be cold Canadiana Arctic air invading our space. It will be cooler and less humid air that will make you feel like your electricity bill could actually be lower for a few days.

black and white electric meter — Photo by Jon Moore on Unsplash

Model projections for September 24th suggest a daytime high of 80 degrees and an overnight low of 63. And it appears that once the cooler air settles in, it will stay for the weekend too. That would mean cool and comfortable weather for the LSU versus Texas A&M game on September 26th.

How Confident Are Meteorologists in that Forecast Scenario?

The confidence in this forecast scenario is growing. It is not 100%, but nothing in weather forecasting ever really is. But the GFS Model consistency and other forecast models slowly coming to a similar solution seem to suggest that the cooler temperatures will happen, but the timing might need to be adjusted.

By Monday or Tuesday of next week, you should start to see this scenario showing up in the 10 Day forecasts you'll see on your local television forecasts. And as we move through time, those forecasts should have a better read on the timing and actual temperature fluctuations.

In the meantime, we've still got to beat the heat. How about something cool and refreshing that won't create chaos if you have to drive somewhere?

Our Favorite Mocktails - 10 Alcohol Free Drinks That You Should Try

Sometimes you just don't want alcohol. Maybe you're the designated driver, or you just don't drink, but you still would love to enjoy a refreshing beverage that isn't just a soda pop. Enter the Mocktail. Those are drinks designed to look like alcoholic drinks but without the booze. They are perfect for when you need to keep your wits about you but still want to seem like you're "having fun". Here are your choices for favorite mocktails. If you have one you'd like to add, let us know about it. We might need to expand our list beyond 10.

Gallery Credit: Bruce Mikells