Hurricane Forecasters Were Right The First Time
The 2018 Hurricane Season has about 45 days left. The season in the Atlantic Basin runs from June 1st to November 30th. Way back in May many hurricane forecasters were expecting an above average season.
Then the season got underway and there was very little activity. The lack of storms and potential storms, plus changes in key factors in tropical weather catalysts seemed to indicate the season wouldn't be so busy, so the forecast was amended at the halfway point of the season.
Then we hit the peak of the Hurricane Season in early September and Mother Nature began to get busy in the tropics.
Dr. Philip Klotzbach is with the Tropical Meteorology Project based at Colorado State University. They are the "go to" forecasters when it comes to long-range tropical prediction. As you can see, the CSU team has changed their opinion of the 2018 season. This after downgrading their seasonal forecast in early August.
Perhaps we have seen the last of our tropical troubles for this year. As of this morning, the only issue in the tropics worth watching is an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 30% probability of strengthening over the next five days. However, most of the forecast models push this weather system into Honduras or Belize before it will have the opportunity to get much stronger.