Tropical Development in Gulf of Mexico Expected This Weekend

Tropical weather watchers in Louisiana will more than likely have a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico to capture their attention by this time Monday morning. The National Hurricane Center is now suggesting that an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean Sea will strengthen as it moves into the Gulf this weekend.

As of yesterday forecasters with the National Hurricane Center were only giving the system a 40% probability of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm. That probability has jumped up quite a bit in the past 24 hours. There is now a 70% probability that at least a tropical depression will form in the Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday or early Monday.

Naturally, the next question that comes to mind when there is the potential for tropical development so close to the Louisiana coastline is "How will this affect us?" The short answer is basically "not much". At least that is the thinking right now.

Forecast models suggest the system will move up from the Caribbean into the Gulf and that's where the warm water and better atmospheric conditions will allow for additional strengthening. And as of now, model guidance is suggesting that should the system develop as expected the west coast of Florida would be the most likely target for a landfall.

Remember, these are model solutions and not official forecasts and will most likely change a lot before all is said and done.

However, the speculation is that the system, once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, will be influenced by an approaching cold front. This should steer the system to the northeast away from Louisiana but unfortunately toward Florida.

I wonder how many of you picked up on the words "cold front" in that paragraph above. Yeah, it looks as if a cold front could influence Louisiana's weather by as early as Labor Day Weekend. It won't be a chiller but it also won't mean 100-degree temperatures either. But you know a high temperature of 79 degrees a week from today doesn't sound that bad, does it?

Of course, the weather will change, it always does. In the meantime, we will watch the Gulf for tropical development over the weekend and we'll hope we do get a cold front to end the heatwave too.