Monday Update – Latest on Louisiana’s Tropical Forecast

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center made it very clear before the season started that coastal interests in Louisiana from Grand Isle through Morgan City, Intracoastal City, and Cameron would need to be vigilante this tropical season. So far interests along Louisiana's coast have been fortunate to witness the beginnings of Hurricane Season 2024 from a distance.

But needless to say, there is suddenly a lot to look at and suddenly the Gulf of Mexico is being mentioned. Below is the graphic from the National Hurricane Center this morning that depicts all significant tropical weather activity in the Atlantic Basin.

As you can see there are three main areas of concern. The area that is closest to Louisiana is Tropical Storm Chris. By the time many of you read this Chris will have been downgraded to a tropical depression. The storm made landfall in Mexico near midnight and is expected to weaken and eventually dissipate.

The other area of interest is Category 4 Hurricane Beryl. Beryl rapidly increased in intensity over the weekend becoming the season's first Major Hurricane. The storm system is currently threatening the islands of St Lucia, St Vincent, Barbados, and the Grenadines. The forecast track for Beryl does bring the system through the Caribbean and close to the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.

The official Hurricane Center track forecast brings the system into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Friday as a tropical storm. Current model guidance suggests that Beryl's track will remain well south of Louisiana's coastline. But, remember those are models and not official forecasts. Also, there is a large margin of error in weather forecasts that extend that far out over time.

Meanwhile, there is a third area of tropical interest to forecasters. That is a tropical wave that is located well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. That system has been given a 70% probability of strengthening into a tropical cyclone by this weekend. If it makes tropical storm status it would earn the name Debby.

In the short term for Louisiana tropical heat will be our biggest weather concern. Heat advisories are posted for the entire state. The afternoon temperatures will be in the middle 90s with the heat index topping 110 degrees in many locations along the I-10 corridor this afternoon.

The only saving grace might be an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Rain chances across the area are higher than seasonal norms. Forecasters warn that some of the afternoon showers and storms could produce tropical downpours and that might result in some temporary street flooding where the heaviest rain might fall.