El Nino is Gone – What That Means for Louisiana’s Summer Forecast

Just as many of us have limited knowledge of classical music thanks to cartoons, a lot of us in Louisiana have limited knowledge of the Spanish language thanks to hurricane season. That's because when hurricane season approaches we hear two Spanish language terms we seldom hear in other places. Those terms are El Nino and La Nina.

Both of those weather-related terms describe conditions along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. And yes, that is more than a few minutes west of Duson, Rayne, and even Estherwood. But how could something in the middle of an ocean thousands of miles to our west have such an impact on the weather conditions we feel around us each day?

In layman's terms, the fluctuation in Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures is a catalyst for changing weather conditions in the United States. The El Nino and La Nina phenomena affect the jet stream which is the current of fast-moving winds well above the Earth's surface. These winds move weather systems and when they move then the weather they move along gets moved to a different part of the country.

A dip or lift in the jet stream could mean torrential rains in Louisiana or it could mean horrific drought conditions and all of those conditions are affected by the El Nino and La Nina patterns. Just about a week ago scientists with NOAA declared El Nino over. That means sea surface temperatures have returned to "neutral".  But what does that mean for Louisiana?

In one word, hot. In two words hot, hurricanes. In three words hot, hurricanes, rainy. Let me put that in picture form for you courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center. Here is the three-month outlook for Louisiana temperatures, including the remainder of June, July, and August.

As you can see, the majority of Louisiana is in the 50% to 60% probability range for above-normal temperatures. That means we will likely see readings in the middle 90s as opposed to the lower 90s for much of the summer months. You're probably already aware that much of the country is baking under a heat dome this week. So, the loss of El Nino could mean a sweltering summer for more than just Louisiana.

The one factor that keeps our temperatures in check is precipitation. The summer months can be notoriously dry across Louisiana but according to the Climate Prediction Center, the remainder of June, July, and August will pan out this way as far as rainfall is concerned. 

As you can see in the graphic above a large portion of Louisiana is in the 50% to 60% probability range for higher precipitation amounts over the course of the next nine weeks. At least if we get the rain, we'll have cooler temperatures. Unless, we get all the rain at one time, which can and does happen in Louisiana, a lot.

Our forecast could also be affected by tropical systems. We currently have one working in the Gulf of Mexico and another forecast to form where that one is now but next week. So, the tropical season is going to be busy, to say the least. But at least you have a rough idea of what to expect and you brushed up just a bit on your Spanish too.