NOAA Predicts Rare ‘Super El Nino’ – What’s That Mean for Hurricane Season?

(KMDL-FM) Every year, as we transition from the cooler months to the hotter months along the Gulf Coast, we all get a brief lesson in Spanish. Okay, we all hear the terms El Niño and La Niña, and we know they have something to do with the upcoming Hurricane Season.  But which one is "good" for Louisiana and which one is "not so good" for Louisiana?

READ MORE: Tropical System in the Gulf Before Memorial Day Predicted

The names El Niño and La Niña refer to weather phenomena that describe temperature fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean along the equator. The rise and fall of those temperatures affect winds across the tropics. Those winds can blow from the Pacific into the Atlantic and really put a damper on tropical storm formation.

This year, according to predictions from NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there appears to be a strong likelihood of what forecasters are calling a "Super El Niño". Should that happen, the effects on the tropical weather and the weather for the U.S. in general will be affected greatly.

Get our free mobile app

The current guidance suggests a 60% probability of El Niño conditions forming. Current guidance suggests the El Niño conditions are expected to develop this summer, which means it could be in place as hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin begins to ramp up.

Does a Strong El Niño Mean More or Fewer Hurricanes for The Gulf?

A strong El Niño is usually good for the Gulf Coast and the Atlantic Basin as far as hurricanes and tropical systems are concerned. The wind generated from the warmer waters of the Pacific tends to create wind shear in the Atlantic. These increased winds at the upper levels tend to curtail and limit tropical formation in the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the Atlantic.

READ MORE: 2026 Hurricane Forecast Predicts Wild Ride for the Gulf Coast

Should the NOAA predictions hold, this could be the strongest El Niño since 2023-2024. And while that might be great news for avoiding tropical systems, there could be other issues.

If you recall, it was during that time frame that Louisiana and the Gulf South experienced one of the worst droughts in recent history. We're not saying that will happen, just suggesting there are always two sides to every story.

Hurricane Season officially begins in the Atlantic Basin on June 1st. The season lasts until November 30th.