Early Tropical Forecast Suggests ‘System in the Gulf’ Before June

(KMDL-FM) The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season is still two months away. It begins on June 1st and lasts until the last day of November. For the past several hurricane seasons, Mother Nature has gotten a jump on the official beginning of the season with tropical systems forming before the June 1st date.

READ MORE: Hurricane Season 2025 - Were The Predictions Accurate?

This year, at least one well-respected tropical forecast is suggesting "something tropical" in the Gulf before Memorial Day Weekend. Normally, we would take such an early forecast with a grain of salt, but this forecast outlet has a nasty habit of getting things right, especially in their long-range outlooks for tropical weather.

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What Do The Preseason Forecasts Predict for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

Tropical Storm Risk has issued the first "official" preseason forecast for Hurricane Season 2026. It was actually published in late December last year. Tropical Storm Risk is an online resource developed in the UK. Its mission is to provide real-time tracking, hazard assessment, and seasonal forecasts for tropical cyclones worldwide.

You can see the complete Tropical Storm Risk assessment of the upcoming season here. But in a nutshell, they are calling for a tropical season that produces 14 tropical storms. Of those 14 named storms, seven would become hurricanes. Of those seven hurricanes, the assessment suggests that three would become "intense" hurricanes. Which I will assume to mean "Major" hurricanes.

When Will NOAA and Colorado State issue their hurricane forecasts?

In the coming weeks, we can expect to see and hear more about the upcoming hurricane season as forecasters like Accu-Weather, Colorado State University, and NOAA issue their preseason outlooks. The CSU forecast will be issued on April 9th, while the NOAA forecast will be issued on May 15th.

READ MORE: 15 Essential Items Every Hurricane Kit Needs to Have

Meanwhile, one other tropical forecaster that isn't really known for its tropical forecast but that has an uncanny record for accuracy when it comes to long-range weather prediction, the Old Farmer's Almanac, suggests that the Gulf will be active with a tropical system in the latter part of May. That scenario is included in the "Texas-Oklahoma" outlook.

However, if you look at the Old Farmer's Almanac forecast for "the Deep South," which is Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi, we don't see mentions of "tropical weather". So perhaps the Old Farmer's Almanac is suggesting a Gulf system that stays well south of the northern Gulf coast.

Obviously, this is speculation about weather based on math and other data and not actual visible science, so yeah, we can take this with a large grain of salt. Still, it's never too early to be thinking about spring and summer storm preps.

What Preseason Storm Preparations Can Be Done Now?

Just some things that come to mind are trimming dead branches out of trees and making sure no branches are touching your roof. Maybe give a tug on the generator's starting rope or turn its key to see if it will crank when you need it. And it's probably a good idea to review your insurance policies and make sure the coverage you bought a few years ago will still cover the possessions you own today.

You might also take a sneak peek at your Hurricane Kit, too. And then get ready to hear those same phrases you hear every hurricane season.