Impacts for Louisiana – Monday Morning Overnight Tropical Update
A tropical weather system is located less than 200 miles south of the Florida coastline and less than half a day's drive by car from Lafayette, Louisiana. The system is currently strengthening in the northern Gulf, and the National Hurricane Center forecasts it will intensify as its track brings it closer to Louisiana by midweek.
Obviously, coastal residents of the northern Gulf from the Florida Panhandle through Mobile, Alabama, Biloxi and Gulfport in Mississippi, coastal Louisiana including New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Lafayette, and Lake Charles, all the way into Beaumont, Houston, and Galveston, Texas will want to brace for the impacts of this storm system.
Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have been monitoring this system since it was just a poorly organized area of showers and thunderstorms clustered around the circulation of an upper-level low-pressure system.
But, as is often the case, any weather system that is left to wander over the warm waters of the Gulf will eventually strengthen. Forecasters are not anticipating a rapid intensification, which many Gulf storms have undergone before landfall, but this system doesn't appear to be in that kind of environment.
Here is the Latest on Tropical Depression 2 - Forecast to Become Tropical Storm Bertha
Here is the 4 AM CDT Tropical Advisory From the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical Depression Two was located about 120 miles south of Panama City, Florida, 220 miles east of Mobile, Alabama, and about 400 miles east of Lafayette, Louisiana.
The system has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. To be designated as a Tropical Storm, sustained winds would need to exceed 39 mph. The system is moving northwest (320 degrees) at 3 mph. Tropical Storm Watches are posted for the Alabama Gulf Coast as well as portions of the Florida Gulf Coast.
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There is wide speculation that the watches and warnings will be extended to Mississippi and Louisiana over the next 24 to 48 hours. The current track guidance from the National Hurricane Center would have the system's center of circulation approaching St. Bernard Parish as a tropical storm with 50-mph winds on Wednesday morning.
On the same track, the center of the storm would be southwest of Thibodaux, Louisiana by Wednesday evening as a weakening tropical storm with maximum sustained winds at 45 mph. And should the current forecast guidance hold through early Thursday morning. The system will be fairly close to Holly Beach, Louisiana as an even weaker tropical system.
Will Louisiana Experience Flooding Rains From The Tropical System in the Gulf?
As you can see in the graphic below, forecast guidance is keeping most of the heavy rain in the Gulf and out of Louisiana.
The saving grace for Louisiana might be the influence of a high-pressure system currently situated near Corpus Christi, Texas. The flow around this weather system will tend to keep the higher winds and heavier rain bands associated with the system offshore.
The wind flow around the high pressure will also pull dry air from over Texas into the system's path. It's possible this inflow of dry air could weaken the system as it moves westward across the northern Gulf.
This graphic, courtesy of Acadiana's Hurricane Expert Rob Perillo at KATC.com, shows the "movers" that are creating the path for the storm system. By the way, Rob's discussion of the potential impacts is an excellent read. You can find that here on the KATC.com website.
What Do We Know About The Gulf Weather System That Could Become Bertha?
We know there is a tropical weathermaker in the Gulf. We know it is expected to strengthen and affect the Louisiana coastline by late Wednesday and especially Thursday. The impacts as of now would be breezy conditions, scattered tropical downpours, and an increase in wave action along the coast.
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Based on the current forecast guidance and long-range models, it does look as though the impacts of what might soon be Tropical Storm Bertha will be minimal and not as far-reaching as some other tropical impacts. But remember, this forecast is subject to change; it will.
Having the station App will ensure that any alerts or changes in the forecast will be delivered directly to your device. The App is free. You'll just need to turn on your Alerts from the Settings menu. I suggest Weather, Traffic, and Breaking News; that will have you covered.
The next intermediate advisory from the National Hurricane Center will come at 7 AM. The next full advisory will come at 10 AM.
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