Hurricane Forecasters Raise Threat Level in the Gulf

(KMDL-FM) If you have lived in Lafayette, Louisiana, for the past ten years, then you probably remember 2016. That was the year that Lafayette and much of South Louisiana experienced a flood of almost biblical proportions. We just crossed the ninth anniversary of that deluge a few days ago, and there are portions of South Louisiana that still haven't recovered.

We tell you that to say this, the storm that caused the almost two feet of rain during that deluge appears to have been an "unnamed tropical system". Just by looking at the radar loops from back then, you can really see the spin.  This leads us to believe that a storm system doesn't need a name or even be that strong to create weather problems along the Gulf Coast.

READ MORE: Probability of a Hurricane Making Landfall in Your Louisiana Parish

READ MORE: Probability of a Hurricane Making Landfall in Your Texas County

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have been eyeing an area of disturbed weather over the past three days. The area has moved from the western Caribbean Sea across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and is now centered to the south and east of Brownsville, Texas.

What Is The Tropical Threat Level in the Gulf Today?

Tropical forecasters have upped the threat level for this system from 20% earlier in the week to 50% as of early this morning. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center does not call for this system to become a named storm, but it could if the system's center stays over open water long enough.

The model forecast suggests the system will make landfall later today in either northeastern Mexico or southern Texas, and the predominant weather feature will be rain. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is supposed to fly into the system later today, but it doesn't appear as if the system will have enough time to strengthen before it interacts with the coastline.

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Much of South Louisiana and the Upper Texas Coast's weather this weekend will be influenced by heat, humidity, and tropical moisture from another tropical wave. That wave has been moving across the northern Gulf during the past week and has been responsible for elevated rain chances across the region.

What Parts of Louisiana and Texas Will See Heavy Rain Today?

The Weather Prediction Center has much of the area at a marginal risk for excessive rainfall both today and Saturday. That means the storms that do pop up could create torrential downpours that can inundate municipal drainage systems, resulting in what the weather service calls nuisance street flooding.

Expect those elevated rain chances to be in play for much of the weekend, especially during the late afternoon and early evening hours.