Tropical System Expected to Strengthen in Caribbean This Week

(KMDL-FM) Just when residents of coastal Louisiana and Texas think they can relax with only six weeks left in the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, here comes Mother Nature with another storm system that is poised to develop. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have given this system a 70% probability of becoming at least a tropical depression by next weekend.

In the satellite picture below, you can see the system as a mass of clouds just west of the Antilles and south of Puerto Rico.

For coastal Louisiana and Texas, the 2025 Hurricane Season has been quiet. We have certainly had our moments of concern when systems were looking as if they would strengthen in the Gulf or the Bay of Campeche, but fortunately for our part of the world, that development was kept to a minimum.

How Many Named Storms Have There Been in the 2025 Hurricane Season?

That doesn't mean the tropical season hasn't been busy. So far, the 2025 season has spawned 10 named storms. This is in fairly close agreement with seasonal forecasts that suggested the 2025 tropical season would produce 13 to 19 named storms. 

I believe the Gulf South's biggest threats from the tropics this year have come from Tropical Storm Barry, which formed over the Yucatan in late June. That system emerged over the southwestern Gulf and eventually made landfall in Mexico.

All of the other tropical entities, including three major hurricanes, have occurred in the open waters of the Atlantic. Unfortunately for the current system that forecasters are tracking across the Caribbean, some kind of landfall seems to be very probable before the system dissipates.

Forecast Track for Tropical Wave in Caribbean Sea

The above graphic from the National Hurricane Center suggests a track forecast that brings the system westward across the Caribbean in the lower latitudes. Here is how the Spaghetti Models look.

As you can see, there is quite a divergence in model solutions as to where this system will actually track. Many of the models don't see the system making it as far west as Central America. Instead, they forecast a turn toward the north. Should that northerly turn manifest early enough, it would pull the system back into the Atlantic.

Will a Tropical Wave in the Caribbean Sea Impact the Gulf?

However, should a northerly turn take place a little further to the west, this could swing the developing system into the southeastern Gulf. As of now, there is no model consensus, so this storm system will need to be monitored for the next several days into the weekend. 

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An examination of forecast models over the contiguous 48 states of the United States, which is well north of this system, also suggests a very good reason why this storm won't be a player in the Gulf.

Forecast models for the "lower 48" suggest a strong cold front sweeping into and through the Gulf South this weekend. The steering forces pushing this system should help push any tropical entities, even those well to the south, off to the east and north of the Gulf itself. 

Based on history, you could say with some degree of confidence that, yeah, the "hurricane" season for Louisiana is over, but not the tropical storm season. Louisiana has never had a named storm make landfall on its coast during November.

We're two weeks away from that, and as we mentioned, six weeks away from the end of the official season, so things are looking good for another safe end to a long tropical season in Louisiana.