Tropical Forecasters Monitoring ‘Hot Spot’ In The Gulf for Development

(KMDL-FM) Technically, if you base your opinion on sea surface temperatures, you could say the entire Gulf from the Yucatan to the Louisiana coast is a "hot spot". But the "hot spot" we are more concerned about is an area of disturbed weather located in the Bay of Campeche. Actually, for us in Louisiana, it's less about what this system is doing now and what it might do in the coming days.

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring two significant tropical entities in the Tropical Atlantic Basin. The most pressing one is the one shaded in red in the graphic above. That system is forecast to become a named storm any day now.

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Should that storm earn a name, and it more than likely will by as early as tomorrow, it will be called Jerry. That would make that system the 10th named storm of the season. Granted, the season still has almost two full months left, but I don't think the tropics are going to reach some of those pre-season forecast numbers; but stranger things have been known to happen.

Hurricane Center Monitoring Disturbed Weather Over Yucatan For Strengthening

Now that we've addressed the largest concern, let's look at the concern that is closest to the United States and Louisiana's coastline. The projected "center" of this system, it is not well defined at all, is located over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Forecasters believe the system will slide westward over the Bay of Campeche.

Once over warmer water, the system could have a chance to develop, but right now, forecasters do not think that will happen. The system is forecast to continue a westward motion, which would bring it back over land in Mexico.

What Is The Projected Path of The System in The Gulf?

Regardless of what the system is or becomes, it will be a prodigious rainmaker for those who are in proximity. But I don't think Louisiana will be anywhere "close" when this system finally dissipates.

The long-range forecast through October 24th shows no tropical issues for Louisiana and the Gulf. However, we are starting to see what could be our first "real cold front". The model guidance suggests that the system will storm through Louisiana on or about October 20th, and in the days that follow, you will hear a lot of talk about gumbo.