San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints — Gus Kattengell’s Preview

The New Orleans Saints are on a two-game winning streak and their play since the bye week has Who-Dats feeling much better about their football team. Sunday they head into a matchup where they’ll face a team that probably feeling like the Saints did just two weeks ago.

San Francisco enters the game at 4-4 coming off of a tough loss at home to St. Louis. QB Colin Kaepernick fumbled at the goal line with two seconds left to lose 13-10. This week three story lines stood out: San Fran’s desperation, the Saints home game winning streak and the hit on Drew Brees last year.

New Orleans has an identical 4-4 record but the divisions the team’s play in couldn’t be more different. The NFC South is a mess as Tampa is switching quarterbacks again this week, Carolina is dealing with injuries and a lackluster offense and in Atlanta this week a photo gallery of possible replacements for head coach Mike Smith was on the city’s front page of the Sports section.

Arizona leads the NFC West with the NFL’s best record at 7-1. The 49ers are already 3 games out of first place and the Cardinals are a 7-½ point favorite for their home game against the Rams. San Francisco can’t lose Sunday. A Cardinal win and 49ers loss would make it highly unlikely San Fran could win the division with a four-game deficit with seven games left. Simply put, the Saints will face a desperate football team in the Superdome on Sunday.

Speaking of the Superdome the Saints have won 20 straight home games including one post season win. There is no denying how the team plays at home as opposed to the road. The Saints also are entering NOLAvember. Since 2009 the Black and Gold are 17-3 in the month, posting a 3-1 record last year in the month.

The third storyline deals with quarterback Drew Brews and the hit he took with 3:12 left in the fourth quarter that was called a personal four. The 49ers felt it was a legal hit, a hit that drew blood though and more importantly wiped out a Brees fumble. The Saints eventually tied the game at 20 a piece thanks to the penalty. San Francisco for weeks following the game talked about the penalty and this week Brees tried to deflect talk of it likely trying not to feed what undoubtedly will be a motivating factor for an already salty team.

KEYS TO THE GAME

I feel there is one key above them all in this game for the Saints and that is the ability and readiness to match the intensity that the 49ers are likely to bring. San Francisco’s backs are against the wall and you can bet fiery and emotionally charged head coach Jim Harbaugh will have stressed all week the importance of winning this game to keep their post season hopes alive. This game has the makings of a playoff game and the Saints will have to prepare and play this game as such. Expect big hits, tempers flaring and emotions running high which means there could be a costly personal foul flag thrown. Staying away from such a costly penalty could be key.

THE SAINTS OFFENSE

Saints quarterback Drew Brees has had success against a tough and turnover minded defense. Brees in six regular season games with the Saints is 155-of-224 (60.2%) for 1,711 with 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. In the matchup last season, Brees went 30 of 43 for 305 yards to go with a TD and an interception. Protecting Brees will be key no doubt but it seems that if given time he’s been able to be effecting despite such an aggressive defense.

Running the ball will be key. RB Mark Ingram has tallied 54 carries in the last two games combined for 272 yards. Ingram rushed just 6 times for 25 yards in last season’s game and it’d be safe to assume that will be easily surpassed especially since RBs Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas are still on the mend. Thomas, Ingram, Sproles and Collins combined for 92 yards rushing.

THE SAINTS DEFENSE

San Francisco’s offense has been stagnant most of this season as their running game and impact from tight end Vernon Davis has dissagpeared. The 49ers in the last two games have averaged just 13.5 points and posted season-low yardage totals in each as their average is now at 286.5 yards per game ranking them 26th. Protection has also been a problem as QB Colin Kaepernick has been sacked 14 times in the last two games after being sacked 13 times combined through the first six games. St. Louis last week alone sacked Kaepernick eight times! The Saints over the last three games have sacked the likes of Mathew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton a combined 11 times.

Frank Gore has been a key in San Francisco’s offensive arsenal yet he’s been in effective as he is being held to 2.7 yards per rush over the last three games and as a team the 49ers are averaging just 77.0 yards per game.

Tight End Vernon Davis who single handedly crushed the souls of Saints fans in the 2011 post season is basically non-existent. Davis in 2013 caught 52 passes for 850 yards with 13 touchdowns in 15 games. This season Davis is averaging 2.7 catches for just 26.8 yards in six games and hasn’t scored since the opening week of the season.

X-FACTORS

Running back Mark Ingram is my player that will need to have a good game Sunday on offense. Ingram has been craving to show the world his value and this being a contract year there is no better time than now. San Francisco, Cincinnati and Baltimore are among the best defenses in the league. Show you can run against those guys and it will be a very nice offseason. More immediately if Ingram can establish a run game it increases the chances at already good Brees against the 49ers defense will be better.

DT Akeim Hicks could be a guy on the defensive side of the ball that could impact the game. Hicks last season tallied seven tackles with four of them being solo and managed to sack Kaepernick one time. The 49ers QB must feel like a piñata with the recent protection struggles so the ability to be able to pressure Kaepernick up the middle and get him to take his eyes away from down the field and into more of a hurried mode could help produce turnovers.

MY TAKE

I think the Saints can win this game by how they start the game. San Francisco knows what’s on the line. The Saints have 8 games remaining and can win just 4 more and likely still win the NFC South. That is a luxury the 49ers do not have. San Francisco likely will be extremely aggressive trying to establish their signature physical style of football. Use that aggressiveness against them, roll Brees out of the pocket, change launch points, and establish the run, all things that I feel the Saints can do. If the Saints don’t turn the ball over they will win, they are simply the better team. Kaepernick and the 49ers offense is a mess and I’d be shocked if walking into a 70-thousdand plus hostile environment will cure their troubles. Saints win 23-16.