Saturday Soaker – How Much Rain for Louisiana This Weekend?

It's another weekend of weather worries for residents of Louisiana. Forecasters with the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, Louisiana say Saturday will be a wet one for most of us who live and work along the I-10 corridor from Lake Charles to Lafayette to Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

If you're thinking "This forecast sounds familiar" then you'd be thinking correctly. This will be the third weekend in a row that Louisiana has had to deal with a threat of showers and storms. Although this weekend's wet weather does not appear to include severe weather, it does appear as though we'll get some rainfall.

How Much Rain is Forecast for Louisiana this Saturday?

That is a question where the answer is still very unclear. Meteorologist Bradley Benoit at KATC TV 3 in Lafayette offered two widely different model predictions in a piece he published on the TV station's website. 

The GRAF Model, which is the graphic above, suggests that most of the rain from the approaching storm will fall to the west of Lafayette. So towns like Lake Charles, Leesville, and Vinton will get more rain if this model solution holds true.

The other model that Bradley featured in his blog was the HRRR Model. This model solution, see the graphic below, does keep the larger rain totals west of Lafayette but does allow for larger amounts across Lafayette, St Martin, St Landry, Iberia, and Vermilion Parishes.

When Will the Rain Begin and End on Saturday?

That, of course, is dependent on your physical location but showers could enter western Louisiana as early as this evening. The showers should spread across the state during the early morning hours. The National Weather Service suggests that after 3 a.m., much of South Louisiana will start to see showers and storms.

The weather system that is creating the wet weather is moving from west to east and so should the showers and storms associated with it. So, points further west will see the rain begin sooner but they'll also be out of the rain sooner than points to the east.

The Gulf Will Be Rough This Weekend

If you are thinking about going out to the Gulf of Mexico to do some fishing this weekend you might want to reconsider. Conditions in the Gulf will not be conducive to "pleasurable" activities.

You are seeing those numbers correctly, wave heights of seven to ten feet will be common across the northern Gulf, not quite as high close to shore but still caution will be the word for anyone contemplating leaving shore.

The storm system should move rather quickly across the state and portions of western Louisiana will begin to clear as early as Saturday afternoon. The forecast for next week appears to be seasonably cool with minimal rain chances.

What is Louisiana's Christmas Day Forecast?

We checked several leading weather sites and they agree that as of right now, Christmas Day across Louisiana will be wet. One forecast outlet suggested that the Lafayette area might see as much as an inch of rain on Christmas Day. Almost all of the forecasts show rain beginning on Christmas Eve and staying through Christmas Day.

We should note that the reliability of forecasts that far out is generally not good. However, the fact that so many forecast outlets are projecting a similar forecast is a pretty good sign of confidence. But, there is still plenty of time between now and then, and the forecast will be updated and tweaked for accuracy as we get close to Christmas Day.