Weather Service Reveals Timing for Louisiana’s Stormy Mardi Gras

This will be a busy weekend for those who revel in the spirit and the season that is Mardi Gras. Lafayette, Youngsville, Eunice, New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and several dozen other communities all have parades and events planned this weekend. From high-tech floats on the streets of New Orleans to mud covered chicken chasers in Church Point and Cankton, Louisiana will "Mardi Gras" at a high level.

Weather is always a concern around Mardi Gras, although there is a certain segment of the party crowd that will make the most of the holiday rain or shine. This weekend, Mother Nature is throwing very few concerns our way. With the exception of sunburn and dehydration, the weekend should be relatively pain-free.

The outlook for Mardi Gras Day, Tuesday, now that's a totally different story. You're going to need to not only plan to get wet, but there could be much stronger storms and even severe storms across Louisiana during the pinnacle of most Mardi Gras celebrations in the state.

Louisiana Expecting Severe Storms On Mardi Gras

The Storm Prediction Center took the unprecedented step a few days ago to issue a severe weather prediction six days in advance. Usually the SPC is more conservative in its forecasting, but the model guidance was pretty evident that Fat Tuesday would be a bad weather day across the Gulf South. 

The current forecast puts most of the I-10 corridor in a "slight risk" zone for severe storms. Portions of central and northern Louisiana will be at an enhanced risk for severe storms during the forecast period. Based on this guidance, it is a very safe bet that there will be storms, some of them will be heavy, several will be severe and pose a threat to life and property.

Riding in a Louisiana Mardi Gras Parade Tuesday? Be Wary of the Wind

Another aspect of this approaching storm system that will play into Mardi Gras celebrations on Monday and Tuesday is the unseen force of the wind. If you've ever attempted to throw a lightweight plastic cup, plastic beads, or anything that is streamlined like a miniature football, you know the wind will play a part.

Forecasters have gusty winds in the forecast for both Monday and Tuesday. This could mean parade throws made into the wind could be blown back on to the parade route. Parade routes with out barricades could become extremely treacherous for float drivers as revelers reach into the streets for the goodies that didn't make it to the curb.

If you examine the chart provided by the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles, you can see that winds are going to be "blowing like a bandit" on Lundi Gras and Mardi Gras. That could make for a blustery mess on the streets across many towns in Louisiana.

Wind gusts of just under tropical storm strength will be likely across much of the area. Trust us, from parade riders to parade attendees we'll all be cursing the wind on Monday and Tuesday but that won't be the worst of our problems this Mardi Gras.

What Is the Timing For Strong Storms in Louisiana on Mardi Gras?

Mother Nature is not like the German Railroad, she doesn't stick to a strict schedule so I want to preface what you're about to see with the caveat, the timing will be changing, probably not a lot, but a difference of a few hours could mean a windy Mardi Gras full of fun and a dangerous situation for people to be outdoors.

Forecast models are in agreement that storms will move into Louisiana on Tuesday. The graphic below from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles offers a glimpse on when the storms will affect your community. The further west you are, the sooner the storms arrive, the further to the east, you might escape the inclement weather for much of the day. Here's the guidance.

The red rectangle near the right-hand side of the graphic is where you want to focus for specific rain arrival times in your town. In general terms, the hours between Noon and Midnight will be the hours of most concern for rain and storms on Fat Tuesday.

If you examine the data a little closer, you'll also see that forecasters have higher rain and storm risks for cities in central Louisiana than they do for Louisiana's coastal communities. It does appear that we'll all get rain but maybe not all of us will get storms.

Mardi Gras is still several days away, that's an eternity in weather forecasting. The Weather Service suggests that a five-day outlook is between 80% and 90% accurate. The accuracy is much greater at 24 and 36 hours.

We will send updated forecasts and important weather information to you via our station App. If you don't have it, download it now. And be sure to set your "Alerts" to receive "Breaking News" and "Weather".

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Use the information today to formulate your plans for Tuesday. Make sure you include some options for what you and your family might do if the weather gets rowdy while you're on the parade route. Then check back with us on Monday morning for a more confident forecast for Mardi Gras. Have fun, be safe, check with us often.