October is the time during the tropical season when the Caribbean Sea becomes a major player in the formation of tropical systems. We have moved out of the Cape Verde portion of the hurricane season and now the potential for storms to develop and form is much closer to our own back yard.

While Tropical Storm Jerry spins out in the middle of the open Atlantic an area of greater concern for residents of the Northern Gulf of Mexico is brewing just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. While the National Hurricane Center gives this system only a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next two days. The forecasters now think the chances are 50% or better that within the next 5 days this area of disturbed weather could be a major player in the Gulf of Mexico.

The current forecast models suggest this system could affect the Northern Gulf Coast anywhere between Galveston Texas and Pensacola Florida. The actual track of this area of disturbed weather and its intensity will be determined by several factors. The strongest factor in this scenario is an approaching cold front. This cold front is expected to move through Acadiana by Saturday. This in effect would push any tropical system well to the east of our area. If the timing changes on the cold front, the tropical system or any number of other factors we could be looking at a very different situation.

Our best advice at this time is to stay close to 97.3 The Dawg and our forecasts from the KATC Storm Team Three Weatherlab. Dave Baker, Rob Perillo and Daniel Phillips are the best in the business when it comes to forecasting the weather in Acadiana and we know their information will be spot on and accurate.