We are now into the Cape Verde season of tropical development in the Atlantic Basin. The Cape Verde season refers to low pressure systems that roll off the African continent and begin to strengthen into tropical waves, tropical depressions, tropical storms, and even hurricanes in the general vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands.

Just last week Tropical Depression #2 formed out of one of these waves and eventually hit hostile conditions and dissipated. There is now another tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center has placed under its scrutiny.

The system is currently just a disorganized area of thunderstorms that is showing some signs of development. The current prognosis from the Hurricane Center suggests a 30% probability of the system strengthening into a tropical cyclone in the next two days. Those chances increase to 70% over the next five days.If the system strengthens as forecast and reaches tropical storm intensity it would be given the name Bertha.

The preliminary tropical forecast models suggest a movement to the west over the next five days. Then the system should start to make a more northerly turn as it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

These long range models on a developing system are highly inaccurate through that much time so the prudent thing to do would be to watch and wait to see exactly what this system might actually do.Where it sits now, the storm should it hold together, is at least 5 days away from affecting any land mass anyway.