‘Excessive Rainfall’ Could Dampen Louisiana’s Weekend Plans

All week long residents of coastal Louisiana communities such as Holly Beach, Cameron, Grand Isle, and Morgan City have been keeping a cautious eye on the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Rafael is a major hurricane and it's currently in the Gulf. Anytime there is a tropical cyclone in that body of water experience has taught us to pay attention.

Hurricane Rafael is not going to directly affect the coastline of Louisiana. In fact, based on the National Hurricane Center's projected track, the system might just "die" in the middle of the Gulf later this weekend or early next week.

While Rafael won't make a direct hit in Louisiana the storm's presence will still be felt. Forecasters with the Weather Prediction Center are saying that moisture kicked up from Hurricane Rafael will interact with a cold front that is forecast to push through Louisiana on Saturday.

Unfortunately, Saturday is a day filled with plans across Louisiana. Some of the bigger events include LSU versus Alabama in Baton Rouge and the University of Louisiana's homecoming game and festivities in Lafayette. There are also numerous festivals and fairs being celebrated this weekend as well.

Based on guidance from the National Weather Service the greatest threat for showers and thunderstorms with "excessive rain" will come during the day on Saturday. An excessive rainfall event is when the rate of falling rain is greater than an area's ability to drain that amount of water away.

This kind of rainstorm usually leads to street flooding and some minor flash flooding of homes and businesses and it's quite possible there could be downpours and deluges this weekend that will deliver just that. The greatest threat of showers for the I-10 corridor appears to be from Noon on Saturday through Noon on Sunday.

Forecasters with the Weather Prediction Center say local rainfall amounts of six inches could be possible across the area with rainfall rates in excess of 2.5 inches per hour. If that happens where you are you won't want to be driving.  The Storm Prediction Center is not forecasting a severe weather outbreak for Louisiana for this weekend so it looks as if heavy rain with the possibility of thunder and lightning will be our greatest concerns.

The cold front should sweep out of the state during the day on Sunday. Behind that front will be much cooler conditions and less humidity. The forecast high on Monday for Veteran's Day is 80. Meanwhile, low temperatures on Monday night will drop into the 50s. Even cooler temperatures are forecast for Louisiana later next week.