Tornado Risk Rises As Storms Approach Gulf South This Week

(KMDL-FM) Spring weather across the Gulf South can be calm and quiet, or rowdy and rambunctious. We are about to experience the latter over the next few days across Louisiana and our neighboring states. The Storm Prediction Center has confirmed that much of the state will be at risk for severe storms within the next 24 to 48 hours.

READ MORE: Which Louisiana Parishes Have the Most Tornadoes? 

Forecasters with the SPC and local National Weather Service Offices say not only will portions of the state be at risk for severe thunderstorms, but those storms could produce life-threatening weather conditions. Among the possible threats to life and property these storms could bring are hail, damaging winds, and an increased risk of rotating storms that could spawn tornadoes.

Which Month Produces the Most Tornadoes in Louisiana?

Oddly enough, even though Louisiana's springtime climate can produce tumultuous changes in our weather, the month that the state experiences the most tornadoes, based on historical averages, is November. April is the second most "popular" month for tornadoes in Louisiana.  So, the fact that there is a concern over rotating storms in the state is legit for this time of year.

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While the entire state will be at risk for showers and strong thunderstorms, the forecast models have been focusing on the northern and central portions of the state as the most likely areas to experience severe storms. According to historical data, southern Louisiana is the part of the state that is most likely to experience tornadoes and severe storms.

The Storm Prediction Center has the portion of the state along and north of US 190, roughly, in the slight risk category for severe storms. From US 190 south to the coast, that part of the state is under a marginal risk for severe storms.

When Will Louisiana Experience Severe Storms and Tornadoes This Week?

The forecast timing suggests that rain and thunderstorm probabilities will begin to rise across northern Louisiana during the day on Wednesday. The increased threat of rain and storms won't reach the I-10 corridor until later Wednesday night or even the early morning hours of Thursday.

READ MORE: "Tornado Alley" Shifts Eastward - What That Means for Louisiana

This Euro Model Projection from Rob Perillo at KATC.com suggests most of us will be sleeping in South Louisiana when the bigger thunderstorms rumble through late Wednesday night.

Rain and thunderstorms will dominate the early morning commute in cities such as Lafayette, Lake Charles, and Baton Rouge on Thursday.  And the risk of rain, heavy at times, will remain across those areas for much of the day on Thursday into Thursday evening.