The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn't officially begin until June 1st. However, forecasters with the Tropical Meteorology Project based out of Colorado State have issued their pre-season extended outlook for the upcoming tropical season.

In a report issued yesterday, the forecast calls for a slightly below average tropical season.  The pre-season forecast is calling for 13 named storms in the Atlantic Basin. Of those 13 named storms, five should reach hurricane status. Of those five hurricanes, forecasters are suggesting that only two will reach major hurricane status.

Forecasters are basing their outlook on weak El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean that is expected to persist and strengthen over the summer months. Forecasters also took into account lower sea surface temperatures in putting together their hypothesis for the upcoming tropical season.

In breaking down landfall potential for the coastal United States. The Colorado State forecast suggests that the potential for a landfalling hurricane crossing the coast between Brownsville Texas and the Florida Panhandle at 28%. In an average year that landfall potential would be 30%.

As always, forecast conditions are subject to change over time and this forecast will be revised throughout the tropical season. The National Hurricane Center and NOAA will release their seasonal forecast in May ahead of the start of the hurricane season June 1st.

Those of us who have lived along the coast also know that no matter how many storms are predicted, it only takes one hurricane or tropical system to change your life. We encourage you to begin thinking about your preparations for the upcoming season and to plan accordingly.

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