Forecasters Still Prediciting Below Average Hurricane Season
We are into it now. June 1 has come and gone and that means the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season is officially underway. Already there are two active areas of concern in the Pacific Ocean but so far no troubles in the foreseeable future for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, or Tropical Atlantic.
Earlier this year the forecast team from Colorado State University released their annual assessment of what we could expect from the upcoming hurricane season. At selected intervals throughout the season they update that information. The good news for most of the coastal United States, the prognostication for a quieter than average season still holds.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State says their models are predicting a season with only eight named storms, six hurricanes, and one hurricane reaching category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
This compares with an average season of about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and two major hurricanes. So only about half of overall basin-wide activity this year.
Dr. Klotzbach's comments were reported in a story published by the Louisiana Radio Network.
He says the reason for the quieter than average season has more to do with what's going on in the Pacific than what's happening in the Atlantic. The phenomenon of warmer than average waters in the Pacific known as El Nino will play a large part in the quieter season.
Dr. Klotzbach's beginning of the season report also included the strike probability for a land falling hurricane during the 2015 season. If you live anywhere along the Gulf Coast from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle your chances of being affected by a land falling hurricane this season are 15%. To put that into perspective, during an average season that same stretch of coastline could expect a strike potential of 30%
The bottom line is be prepared to act and have a hurricane plan in place. It's better to have plan and not need it than to have a hurricane and no plan. .