Forecasters Watching Area Of Disturbed Weather In Caribbean
We are heading into the second week of November. While technically it is still hurricane season we usually don't see a lot of tropical activity this time of year.
Maybe it's the record warmth we've experienced the past couple of days or maybe it's just the waters of the Caribbean are still very warm. Regardless the reason the National Hurricane Center is watching two areas of disturbed weather.
The first area of disturbed weather is probably supplying a lot of the moisture you're hearing on your roof on this Saturday afternoon. The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are not giving this system much of a chance to develop. The probability of tropical formation for this area of convection just off the Texas coast and just South of Louisiana is minimal. It's listed at about 20% or less for then next five days.
There is another area of concern that appears to have a better chance for spinning up into at least a tropical depression by the middle of next week. This system is centered just east of Puerto Rico. While conditions in the near term do not favor a rapid development, the long range forecast give this system a fighting chance to develop. The Hurricane Center has given this area of disturbed weather a 50% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone.
Forecasters do not believe this system will affect the Gulf of Mexico. Most of the reliable tropical models suggest this system will drift to the north near the Bahamas and could possibly threaten the east coast of the United States.
So far the Hurricane Season of 2015 has been quiet but active. Most of the activity has stayed away from the land masses but we have already seen ten named storms. The most recent being Hurricane Joaquin that reached Category 4 status as it moved over the Bahamas.
The Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.