Those who study hurricanes historically are now breathing a lot easier. The final weeks of September and the first couple of weeks of October were extremely busy in the tropics. That's not usual. The official peak of the season happens September 10th and then there is a bit of a fall off until a secondary  peak about this time in October.

With Hurricane Nicole now churning northeastward into the open and much colder waters of the North Atlantic Ocean could this be it for tropical  formation this season? There is no forecaster of any merit that would give a definite answer on that question but many including those at the National Hurricane Center would suggest that the season shouldn't be firing up too many  more tropical waves or storms.

Since this is the time of year when frontal systems can actually push through the deep south and into the Gulf of Mexico there is always the probability that a low pressure system attached to a weakening frontal system could spin up into a tropical cyclone just off the coast. It's happened before. Could it happen again? There is always that probability.

The outlook for the tropics over the next five days is very quiet. No tropical cyclone formation is anticipated between now and the middle of next week. The deeper the calendar takes us into October and November the less likely that storm formation will be. The hurricane season will officially end for the Atlantic Basin on November 30th.


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