Louisiana Bracing For Severe Storms, Flooding Rains Wednesday

Louisiana's weather has been either feast or famine when it comes to rainfall over the past three months or so. Many parishes, including Jeff Davis, Evangeline, St Landry, Vernon, Lafayette, and others had to impose burn bans earlier this year because of the dry conditions. That has changed significantly over the past three weeks.

The above graphic is a look at Louisiana's most recent Drought Monitor. The darker shaded areas are the portions of the state deemed to be in "severe drought". But this monitor was completed on November 5th. Since then many portions of the state have been inundated with heavy and sometimes flooding rainfall. So, the next monitor should show even fewer drought conditions.

Unfortunately for many residents of south and south central Louisiana, the flooding rains of this past weekend could be setting up for a repeat performance during the day today. The catalyst for today's potential "excessive rainfall event" is actually twofold. There is moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico and the remnants of Hurricane Rafael.

This moisture is running into a frontal boundary in the form of an approaching cold front. The front is pushing across Texas this morning and should move through Louisiana today. The Weather Prediction Center has placed a portion of the state at a slight risk of excessive rainfall and an even larger portion of the state at a marginal risk for flooding rains.

The WPC says we can't rule out localized rainfall totals of four inches or more over the areas shaded in yellow and green. However, most places won't get nearly that much but the potential is there.

The Storm Prediction Center says the threat of Louisiana will be a part of Louisiana's forecast for Wednesday as well. The risk is listed at marginal for residents generally eas of US 165 and south of I-20. That's a very generic description of where the worst of the weather is expected. Below is a graphic from the SPC which gives you a little better idea.

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles issued a forecast graphic that shows just how deep the precipitation gradient will be from East Texas into Southern Louisiana. It's almost as if the line of demarcation is US 165 for not only the severe threat but also the threat of heavy downpours and flooding rains.

Radar scans early this morning show showers and storms moving onshore in Louisiana. That will be the case until mid-afternoon today. The NWS Forecast Office in Lake Charles speculates that most of the rain should be out of the area by about 3 this afternoon.

Then we'll start to notice the arrival of the cold front. The winds will become northerly tonight and by Thursday temperatures will have fallen into the upper 50s. The forecast calls for sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures through the weekend.