Savage Storms: Timing Louisiana’s Severe Weather Threat Saturday

A strong spring cold front and associated low-pressure system has all of Louisiana on storm watch this Saturday morning.  If you live in or near Lafayette, Baton Rouge, Alexandria, Shreveport, and Monroe you should be especially weather-aware later this afternoon and into the nighttime hours of Saturday.

According to the Storm Prediction Center, the entire state is at risk for severe storms today, but the cities we listed above are at an enhanced risk. This means stronger storms and more of them are forecast to form in that area. You can see what that looks like in the graphic below from the SPC website.

This storm system will bring several threats to the area as it moves through on Saturday. The current forecast timing suggests that rain and storm chances will begin to ramp up after 3 this afternoon. The heaviest weather is most likely to move through the area during the overnight hours, perhaps midnight or later depending on where in the state you are.

Is There A Threat for Tornadoes in Louisiana Today?

The answer to that query is yes. As of early this morning, there were no watches or warnings posted in the state however it does appear that watches, at least for severe thunderstorms should be expected. Regarding the tornado threat, the graphic below offers great guidance on the current forecast projections.

Another threat that is very possible with today and tonight's storm pattern is large hail. The large chunks of ice that get tossed about during strong and severe thunderstorms can certainly pose a significant danger to life and property. Forecasters with the National Weather Service in Lake Charles have released this graphic concerning the threat of large hail across South Louisiana during the next 24 to 36 hours.

If you were wondering how the Weather Service defines "large hail", in the case of this graphic, the shading shows the risk for hail greater than two inches in the "hatched" area. That is basically the area that is north and west of U.S. 165.

Is There a Flood Risk in Louisiana Today?

There is a definite possibility that heavy downpours could exacerbate a high water situation that has been going on across much of South Louisiana since Monday. Many rivers, streams, and coulees are near capacity across the region and any sudden downpour would create an opportunity for flash flooding and urban street flooding as well.

Fortunately, the forecast does suggest that the heaviest rain will fall when traffic should be significantly lighter in the middle of the night. But, if you do have travel plans later this evening, especially after midnight, be aware that some of the roadways on your journey could be holding high water for a few hours.

After the storm system pushes across Louisiana during the day on Sunday temperatures will begin to drop. Forecast highs on Sunday and Monday are anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees cooler than they are for today.

No, we are not expecting a freeze or frost, but temperatures will be in the 40s to start the day for the first part of the upcoming workweek. And speaking of the workweek, the forecast should be mostly sunny and seasonable through next Friday.