Tropical Threat on Louisiana’s Coast Likely by Late This Week
There appear to be no two ways about it. Louisiana's coastline is going to be affected by a seventh tropical system during this neverending Hurricane Season of 2020. Okay, the system is forecast to end November 30th but I'll believe that when I see it. But what we are seeing right now does not look good for the northern Gulf Coast.
The culprit, in this case, is Tropical Depression 26, that system could become Tropical Storm Delta at any moment, its maximum sustained winds were just below the tropical storm threshold early this morning, and intensification is expected.
The forecast track for the soon-to-be tropical storm is eerily similar to the track forecast for Hurricane Sally. That storm made landfall in September along the Alabama Gulf Coast as a strong category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson scale. However, the track of this system appears to be slightly west of Sally's ultimate track, at least at this time.
The most recent run of tropical forecast models appears to be in fairly good agreement. Those models predict the system will move out of the Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico between the Yucatan and western Cuba. The system is then forecast to take a more northerly turn and an eventual northeastward turn.
As of now, most of the models and the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center show a landfall along the southeastern Louisiana coast.sometime on Friday afternoon. Now, you'll want to remember that these forecasts can and do change, sometimes drastically, in a short period of time.
So, a landfall in southeastern Louisiana is not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination. Also remember that the Hurricane Center's margin of error in a four-day forecast is 160 miles, it's 200 miles in a five-day forecast. So, we suggest you check back with us often for the very latest on this particular storm.
Oh, and don't sleep on Tropical Storm Gamma. It's still spinning around the Yucatan this morning and is expected to make landfall there again over the next few days. Then it should emerge back out into the Gulf as a tropical depression later in the week. So, we could see Delta move through and then have to be mindful of where Gamma might go.