Tropics Sep 12
National Hurricane Center
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Tropical Storm Henri finally moved north of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream into the much less hurricane conducive waters of the North Atlantic yesterday. This lack of sea surface temperature and unfavorable upper level environment basically dismantled the once tropical storm.

Forecasters project the remnants of Henri will move toward Nova Scotia and then turn east toward Europe.

Meanwhile the National Hurricane Center has identified three other areas of concern in the tropical Atlantic basin.

Disturbance 1 is the remnants of former Tropical Storm Grace. It is currently located near Puerto Rico and forecasters do not believe conditions are favorable for this system to develop over the next five days into anything more than just an area of thunderstorms.

Disturbance 2 is located just off the west coast of Africa. This area has the most potential for development over the next five days. Forecasters are giving this area of disturbed weather a 50% probability of developing into a tropical cyclone by the middle of next week. The forecast track of this area would be similar to Grace and Henri. This means the system would track to the west and eventually slide to the north. If the forecast holds true.

Disturbance 3 is in the Mid-Atlantic. It is a small low pressure system that is about one thousand miles west of the Azores Islands. The Hurricane Center is suggesting that this area of disturbed weather will have a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

What About The Gulf of Mexico? Some forecasters have suggested that conditions might be favorable for tropical development in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico during the coming week. There will certainly be enough moisture and the ocean temperature is more than warm enough. It is the  upper level conditions that might play the biggest part in whether or not a tropical-like weather system spins up over the next few days in the Bay of Campeche.

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