Tropical Update – Threat In Gulf Likely
Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have been gathering information on a tropical wave that is currently centered well to the southeast of Miami. The system is expected to move to the north-west over the next several days. By next week forecasters believe the system will be in the Gulf of Mexico.
Based on the tropical model analysis the center of the developing system will likely be near the northern Gulf coast by Wednesday or Thursday. Currently, the forecast solutions aren't in clear agreement on the track of the system over time. So, anywhere from Lake Charles Louisiana to Fort Myers Florida people should keep an eye on how this situation is going to unfold.
The prognosis for strengthening is minimal for the next two or three days but by the middle of next week, conditions should allow the system to become better organized. The Hurricane Center is now saying there is an 80% probability for a tropical cyclone to develop within this system by Thursday.
It's probably a good idea to point out that the location of the "center" of this weather system is not particularly important. This system, as of now, appears to be setting up to produce a lot of rainfall. That rainfall will likely be spread over a large area that could be hundreds of miles from the "center" of this storm system.