Respected Forecasters Update Hurricane Outlook For Texas and Louisiana

(KMDL-FM) We are not even two weeks into the 2025 Hurricane Season, and while the National Hurricane Center is not reporting any imminent signs of tropical trouble, we are seeing signs in the tropics that Mother Nature is about to get busy.

Tropical forecast models have been suggesting that a potential tropical entity will affect the Yucatan, northeastern Mexico, and possibly the Gulf itself before the month comes to an end. We will caution you now, models are not official forecasts. Use the models to stay informed, but act and rely only on official forecasts before making any decisions about the protection of life and property.

READ MORE: Tropical Model Predicts System in the Gulf Before the End of June

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All of the major forecast outlets have issued their pre-season and early-season outlooks for the upcoming tropical season. However, yesterday, June 11, the highly respected forecast team out of Colorado State University issued an update to their pre-season outlook. And if you live along the Gulf Coast, that update will not make you feel at ease at all.

The new update included this ominous language,

we anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

Just from that statement alone, you can see why "tropical anxiety" runs high along the Gulf Coast between June 1st and November 30th every year. No, the report does not specifically mention the Gulf Coast, but you have to figure the Gulf is going to come into play eventually before the tropical season ends. 

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How Many Hurricanes are Expected to Form in 2025?

If you're looking at just the "numbers," they haven't changed as far as the predicted number of storms, named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. What has changed are the conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which have a major effect on how hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean plays out.

The CSU report suggests that sea surface temperature in the Atlantic was warmer than average but not as warm as last season. But unlike last year, ENSO-neutral conditions are noted in the Pacific. That means there are no El Niño or La Niña conditions noted in the western ocean.

What's The Difference Between El Nino and La Nina During Hurricane Season?

La Nina typically means a more active hurricane season; El Nino conditions usually mean a less active season in the Atlantic. So, we're not sure exactly which way this season might go, other than almost all of the forecasters agree it will be above average.

The historical average for named storms in the month of June is just one storm. However, it only takes one storm to wreck your world. Fortunately, we are still all quiet in the Gulf, at least for now. Meanwhile, off the west coast of Mexico, the Pacific Tropical Season is off and running. That part of the world has already seen three named storms this season, including the season's first hurricane, Barbara.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through November 30th, and as always, we suggest you make a plan for your family, your pets, and your property now while you have time to think clearly. Let's hope you won't need that hurricane kit or that hurricane plan, and you won't have to hear your Cajun Maw Maw spouting off her wisdom on the subject anytime this year either.