Weather Service Expands Louisiana Severe Threat Saturday

(KMDL-FM) The National Weather Service has updated the forecast for Louisiana this Saturday morning, and the update is not a good one if you have outside plans. Unfortunately, around the state, there are plenty of outside activities that could be affected by storms, especially later this afternoon and into Saturday night.

The Storm Prediction Center in their previous forecasts had speculated that Louisiana's greatest threat for severe storms would be concentrated along and north of I-20 on Saturday. New data reveals that the potential threat has expanded southward.

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The catalyst for the inclement weather is a cold front. That frontal system is currently pushing through Texas and the Great Plains. Many cities across Kansas and Nebraska are under Winter Weather Advisories because of the colder air behind the system. Some of that colder air will get into Louisiana by Monday, but we shouldn't experience any wintry weather because of it.

The National Weather Service Forecast Office, despite layoffs and shutdowns, continues to provide important information to keep you and me ahead of the storm. The importance of their work is highlighted on days like today when there is a potential for life-threatening weather conditions across the majority of our state.

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What Is The Timing for Severe Weather in Louisiana?

According to the Storm Prediction Center, these areas of Louisiana are now at risk for severe weather today, tonight, and early Sunday.

In very generalized terms, the threat of heavier storms will be more likely along and north of LA 28 and U.S. 84, which bisect Louisiana basically on a Leesville to Alexandria to Natchez, Mississippi line. The area of the state below that line, which includes Lafayette, Lake Charles, Opelousas, and Baton Rouge, is forecast to have a marginal risk of severe storms today.

In South Louisiana, especially, some big outdoor events could be affected by the weather. Among those events is Chuck Fest in Lake Charles, which is a downtown festival scheduled for today. The International Rice Festival in Crowley will continue today, tonight, and Sunday. And in Lafayette, the University of Louisiana is hosting its annual homecoming parade and football game.

What are the Rain Chances Across Louisiana on Saturday?

Unfortunately for those events, forecasters have not only increased the rain threat for the day and the evening, but they've pushed up the timing of when the rain might begin compared to yesterday's outlook. Here is the updated rain threat with estimated timing.

Based on the data from NWS/LCH, it looks as if rain chances will be 50% or better in Lafayette and Lake Charles by 3 pm. Those rain chances will elevate into the early evening hours and eventually start to taper off as we move into Sunday morning.

Temperatures across the region will remain mild today with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s. Tomorrow, with cloud cover and a little rain, and a northerly breeze, temperatures will be slightly cooler, but Monday morning, when you wake up for work and school, that's when you'll really feel the cold front.

How Cold Will It Be in Louisiana Next Week?

Check out the temperatures for the next five days across South Louisiana. It also looks as if drier conditions will return to the area by Sunday, with no real threat of rain at least until the end of the week.

Looking even further down the road, the outlook for Halloween Trick-or-Treats appears to be nice with sunny skies and temperatures below normal. However, there is a threat of rain that is showing up on November 1st according to the long-range models.

Of course, those models will be revised and revamped, but as of now, Halloween and Halloween week look to be clear, calm, and cool.