Weather Service Releases Louisiana’s Summer Forecast – How Hot, How Wet?

(KMDL-FM) The Climate Prediction Center, a division of NOAA and the National Weather Service, has issued its long-range complete summer forecast for Louisiana. The forecast covers June, July, and August, which most of us consider summer, right?

In Louisiana, we know it's going to be hot. That is not a surprise, the information we're hoping to glean, as far as temperatures are concerned, is whether it be just "regular" hot or will "people find mailboxes, cats, and other items melting in the summer sun" hot?

The other caveat for a summer forecast in Louisiana involves precipitation. In much of the state, June is the wettest month. However, the coastal sections of the state, let's say south of I-10 just for geographical reference, usually see more rain in August.

Another wild card that has to be considered when you talk about weather in Louisiana during the summer months is the tropical weather pattern. As of now, many forecasters who specialize in the tropics are suggesting a less-than-robust season, but that doesn't mean there won't be tropical concerns at some point between now and the end of November.

READ MORE: Probability of a Landfalling Tropical System in Your Parish in 2026

Taking any landfalling tropical systems out of the equation, here is what forecasters tell us to tell you to expect as you make plans for the summer months. The temperature forecast suggests that Louisiana, Texas, and the majority of the Gulf South states will see temperatures that are slightly above normal.

Compared to the average, how hot will Louisiana's Summer be in 2026?

Normals, for Lafayette, mean a daytime high temperature between 89 and 92 and an overnight low temperature of 73 to 76. The average temperatures along Louisiana's I-20 corridor are actually higher than those in South Louisiana. In Shreveport, for example, average daytime high temperatures are between 90 and 95.

Here's the graphical breakdown of the summer forecast from the Climate Prediction Center.

Rain, or more recently, lack of rain, has certainly played a part in how Louisiana has fared over the last few years. That drought back in 2023/2024 really hurt the crawfish season. It also led to burn bans and really "put a hurtin'" on Louisiana yards and gardens. Will that happen again this year?

If you've lived in Louisiana long enough, you can recite the summer forecast verbatim: "Partly Cloudy, Hot Humid, with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms." There is no reason to believe this summer will be that much different.

Compared to the average, What's the Summer Rain Forecast for Louisiana?

In Lafayette, and along the I-10 corridor, "average" summer precipitation is between 15 and 16 inches of rainfall. Most of that rain will come in the form of "airmass" or "afternoon" thunderstorms.  Along I-20, the rainfall amounts are generally less. The Shreveport average for the summer is 11.5 inches of rain.

READ MORE: 20,000 Louisiana Residents Could Share Their Name with a Hurricane

Now that you know that, this will make more sense. Here is the graphic breakdown of the precipitation forecast from the CPC for the summer months.

In a typical summer season, Shreveport will see six days with high temperatures above 100 degrees. Along I-10 in cities such as Lafayette and Lake Charles, a 100-degree reading isn't nearly as common. Generally, 1 to 5 days is the average, but in 2023, we did go 17 consecutive days in Lafayette, where the temperatures breached the century mark.

Which leads me to ask you this question: What have you done for your air conditioning and HVAC system ahead of the summer heat season? Why don't you call and get it looked at? Or, you could take a few steps on your own to ensure that you won't be sweating in places no one likes to talk about.