Forecasters with the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University have issued a revised forecast for the 2019 Hurricane Season. The report cites tropical activity that has already occurred in the Atlantic Basin in 2019. Namely, two named systems, the most notable was Hurricane Barry that affected Louisiana last month.

The updated forecast also takes into consideration a weak El Nino situation in the Pacific, sea surface temperatures which are near average, and a forecast of higher than usual wind shear over the Caribbean Sea.

After taking all of those variables into consideration the forecasters at CSU are bumping the total number of hurricanes for 2019 up by one. The new CSU outlook is calling for 14 named storms, seven of which are forecast to become hurricanes. The earlier forecast only suggested six hurricanes.

The revised outlook also holds the number of major hurricanes, category 3 or higher, at two for the season. The probability of one of those major hurricanes making landfall somewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast is figured to be 31% or 1% above the seasonal average.

Forecasters with Colorado State will update their tropical forecast product every two weeks. The next update from them is scheduled to be released on August 19th.


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