Acadiana Storm Threat Likely Early Friday Morning
Forecasters with the National Weather Service and with KATC Television in Lafayette are in agreement, there will be some strong storms and possibly severe weather in the area over the next 24 to 36 hours. The bigger questions now are when will the worst of the weather arrive and how strong will the stronger storms be.
Let's look first at the timing aspect of the weather system and when it will most likely bring inclement weather to Lafayette and surrounding communities. The general consensus is that today, Thursday will be a mostly sunny day with temperatures warming into the 70s by this afternoon.
The mix of clouds and sun during the day today will be accompanied by some blustery breezes too. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles is suggesting that by later this afternoon wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph won't be uncommon.
Forecasters do say the threat of showers will be on the increase as we move into the evening hours. However, the bulk of the stronger storms is not expected to move into the Lafayette area until early Friday morning. This snapshot of the HRRR Model run courtesy of KATC suggests that scattered showers won't be moving into the area until much later tonight.
You can see the time stamp on that model projection shows midnight with only scattered showers in the area. However, if you advance that model run by a few hours the picture looks quite different.
Please remember that this is a forecast model projection and not an official forecast.
As you may have deduced the showers and storms will move in quickly and then exit the area almost just as fast. So, by Friday morning as you rise and shine for your morning commute or to get kids ready for school much of the heavy weather will have exited the area.
What about the weather for Patty in the Parc Tonight?
For those who were contemplating attending Patty in the Parc in Downtown Lafayette this evening, while we can't guarantee you won't see a sprinkle before the show is over the current thinking is that tonight's outdoor event will not be affected by the weather. Gates for Patty in the Parc will open at 5 pm tonight and the show will conclude by 10 pm.
You will need to at least be aware that there is a possibility of severe weather in the area later tonight but most likely in the wee small hours of Friday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Louisiana in the slight risk zone for severe storms through early Friday.
The National Weather Service is forecasting rainfall totals from this frontal passage to be anywhere from half an inch to three-quarters of an inch. Of course, higher amounts of rainfall are possible during heavier thunderstorms. Once the system moves through we can expect sunny skies and springlike conditions through the weekend.
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