Forecast Revised: Timing Louisiana’s Severe Threat Saturday

Residents of Carencro, Rayne, Lebeau, Welsh, and Sunset in South Louisiana have an especially keen interest in this weekend's weather forecast. In fact, based on what the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service are telling us, we should all be paying attention to the forecast, especially on Saturday afternoon and evening.

The reason folks in the Louisiana towns we've listed above are watching the weather forecast so closely? Each of those communities has a Mardi Gras event planned for this weekend. In fact, if you'd like to see the complete schedule of Mardi Gras events in South Louisiana, use this link. 

But no matter whether you have plans to attend a parade, a courir, or chicken run or if you just plan on doing things around the house on Saturday the weather will certainly need to be included in your planning. We have a significant severe storm threat across almost all of Louisiana beginning Saturday morning and lasting throughout much of the day.

The above graphic from the National Weather Service Lake Charles Forecast Office is a great explainer of what we should be expecting as Saturday unfolds across the region. The threat of severe storms will enter the state from the west early Saturday morning.

The severe weather threat will push eastward across the state during the day on Saturday and Saturday night. As of now, the strongest storms are forecast to be well north of I-10. The area at greatest risk for severe storms and tornadoes is in central and northern Louisiana.

That darker-shaded area that looks like the yolk of an egg is where the SPC has placed an Enhanced Threat for severe storms. That is the most likely area for severe storms to occur during the forecast period, which in this case is 6 pm Friday night to 6 pm Saturday night.

The yellow shaded area in the above graphic represents where there is a slight risk of severe weather. As you can see, all of Louisiana is at risk for severe storms on Saturday so we will all need to keep an eye on the sky and be prepared to move to a place of safety if and when severe storms approach.

The timing on the official forecast for when the severe weather will arrive has shifted. It does look as though showers and storms will be arriving later in the day on Saturday than first thought. This is a snapshot of the GFS Model at 6 pm on Saturday. The dark red areas over northwestern and southeastern Louisiana represent the areas where model guidance suggests the strongest storms will be.

The GFS is just one of several model runs over the past few hours that have suggested that Saturday night might be when cities such as Lafayette, Alexandria, and Baton Rouge will see strong storms. Still, those are forecast models and not official forecasts. We will provide an update early Saturday morning so if you have Mardi Gras plans you can make a better informed decision.

Once this storm system moves through late Saturday into Sunday morning conditions should improve greatly. Sunny skies are forecast for Sunday but it will be very windy and much colder. Monday morning temperatures could reach into the upper 30s in some locales with temperatures near the freezing mark in central and northern sections of the state.