Overnight Tropical Update – Gulf System Better Organized, Poised to Strengthen

(KMDL-FM) Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say an area of low pressure in the northern Gulf, just south of the Louisiana coastline, has become more organized overnight. Satellite data suggests the storm could strengthen into a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm. If it earns designation as a tropical storm, it would be called Edouard.

cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

Forecasters Say Remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly Could Impact the Gulf

This system is one of two tropical entities that could impact the Gulf this week. The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly are still holding together. Should that system remain together or grow stronger, there are forecasts that do bring it into the Gulf or at least an impact with the Florida peninsula before Labor Day. 

The immediate concern is the system that is about 100 miles south of Louisiana's coastline. Satellite imagery shows the system's circulation becoming better defined. Satellite wind data suggests winds of 30 to 35 miles per hour. The wind speed threshold for a tropical storm is anything greater than 39 miles per hour.

nhc.noaa.gov

The forecast track for this system carries just south of or very near the Louisiana coast during the day today and during much of Tuesday. Depending on the final track, the storm's center of circulation could cross the coast in either southwest Louisiana or along the Upper Texas Coast.

What Are The Major Impacts for Louisiana From the Current Tropical System?

Regardless, at this point, wind does not appear to be the issue with this system, at least onshore. Rain and tropical downpours will be the dominant weather feature from this system from later today until perhaps as late as Thursday.

The United States Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to fly into and through the system later this morning. Once the "Hurricane Hunters" have had a look and the data collected has been studied, that could be when the storm earns the designation as a tropical depression or tropical storm.

READ MORE: Drove Through High Water? Check These Things on Your Vehicle

Heavy downpours, not large rainfall totals, will be the bigger issue with precipitation from this system. The Weather Prediction Center suggests that all of the I-10 corridor will be at risk for an Excessive Rainfall Event today and tomorrow.

weather.gov/lch

An Excessive Rainfall Event occurs when rainfall rates are higher than an area's ability to drain. This leads to "nuisance" street flooding. That flooding is usually short-lived but can cause damage to automobiles and create life-threatening situations if motorists drive into floodwaters.

We do anticipate the rainfall forecast to fluctuate over the next 24 to 48 hours since the amount of rain a particular area might receive will be based on the actual track of the storm system and any strengthening that might occur. The assessments we're offering now are based on National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecasts.

Will Heavy Rain Affect School Pickup in South Louisiana?

water droplets on glass during daytime

Expect rain chances to be higher in the afternoon hours as the daytime heating will interact with the tropical moisture and instability brought about by this system. Unfortunately, that could lead to some soggy school pick-ups after school for both Monday and Tuesday. On the bright side, we don't have a heat advisory.

And just in case it's raining too heavily for you to get out and pick up groceries later today, why not let someone bring the food to you? Here are some great ideas for rainy day delivery.