Louisiana’s ‘Best Chance’ for Snow Two Weeks Away

(KMDL-FM) I am sure most of you have a picture or two from last January's snowstorm that inundated the I-10 corridor and Gulf South with a blanket of snow not seen in decades. While the amount of snow that fell across the area might have been surprising, the fact that snow fell was not a surprise to forecasters with the National Weather Service. Are we about to be "surprised" again in the next few weeks?

We understand you have to temper the use of the word "surprise" in this instance. It is winter, and the temperatures can be cold enough for frozen precipitation; that's a given. But it is very rare, at least here in the Gulf South, for the conditions of freezing temperatures and falling precipitation to come together.

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Can It Really Be Too Cold to Snow?

You've probably heard that phrase before, "It's too cold to snow." While the evidence surrounding the statement might be true, the reality is this. Usually, when it gets cold enough for frozen precipitation, the air doesn't have enough humidity or moisture in it to create condensation and thus freezing rain, sleet, or snow. It really does take a lot of atmospheric jockeying for snow to fall this far south.

READ MORE: Which Louisiana Town Got the Most Snow in the Storm of 2025?

But if that is going to happen, we are about to enter that window when it's most likely to occur. We've mentioned last year's late January snowstorm. Another big snow event happened across the I-10 corridor on Valentine's Day. Okay, that was in 1895, but Lafayette did get 14 inches of snow while Lake Charles got 22 inches in that storm.

Other big snow events in South Louisiana have happened on January 11th, which was back in 1973, and there was another notable snowstorm in 1940 that happened on January 23rd. So, you can see why history says in about two weeks, Louisiana will be in its historical likelihood for snowfall.

What Is the Winter Weather Outlook for Louisiana in January?

The forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is not leaning into history, at least at this juncture. The CPC suggests our temperatures in January will be above normal. You can see that in the graphic below.

The CPC precipitation outlook does call for "normal" amounts over the next 30 days, so we won't be bone dry, but chances are anything that falls from the sky will be liquid and remain that way all the way to the ground.

READ MORE: History in the Making - Tiger Stadium Covered in Snow

The long-range forecast for the next two weeks does show temperatures approaching the freezing mark by Sunday, following the passage of a cold front on Friday. But the colder air outbreak will be short-lived at best as no other major temperature drops are forecast at least through the middle of January.